2024-08-06 17:29:41
It also reveals what electricity price trends consumers can expect in the coming months.
According to M. Kavaliauskas, electricity prices on the “Nord Pool” exchange fluctuated very dynamically in June and July. For example, hourly electricity prices in the first summer month ranged from a negative -0.006 euro per kilowatt hour (kWh) to 0.37 euro per kWh (excluding value added tax (VAT), state-regulated and supplier margin parts). There was also no shortage of electricity price cuts between morning and evening in July.
“Recent months have been characterized by large fluctuations in electricity prices depending on the time of day. In both June and July, we recorded cases where the price of electricity in one hour, more often in the morning or during the day, reached 0.032 euro/kWh, and in the evening, at 21-22 hours, it jumped ten times to almost 0.34 euro/kWh.
Generally speaking, when electricity is least needed, it is cheap, and when demand increases, electricity becomes more expensive. These price fluctuations are relevant for residents who have chosen plans linked to the exchange price – in order to avoid higher electricity bills, energy consumption should be reduced during peak hours,” says M. Kavaliauskas.
He adds that the unevenness in electricity prices was caused by the demand for electricity exceeding the supply. As air temperatures soared, demand for electricity for cooling increased as renewable energy production declined.
“In June, in the Baltic countries, including Lithuania, the production of hydropower plants decreased the most – by as much as 66 percent compared to May. This was influenced by the prevailing heat, which reduces the amount of water in reservoirs, and downstream rivers, in turn, reduce production in hydroelectric plants. In addition, the production volume of wind power plants fell by a fifth, and the energy generated by the sun also decreased. In July, compared to June, the wholesale price of electricity grew by 7 percent. This was influenced by the increase in electricity consumption due to the heat, the decrease in the production of solar power plants, and the ongoing scheduled works on the energy infrastructure,” says M. Kavaliauskas.
What to expect in the coming months?
According to the expert, in the coming months, it is likely that we will not avoid electricity price fluctuations on the stock exchange either. One of the reasons is that due to repair work in Sweden, the bandwidth of the NordBalt connection is limited, which is expected to last until October.
Repair work on the EstLink 2 link between Finland and Estonia, which is scheduled to last until August 31, may also have an impact on power surges. It is estimated that only 358 MW (EstLink 1) of the total 1,016 MW installed for the Finland-Estonia link will be available by the end of August, which will significantly limit electricity imports from the Nordic countries.
M. Kavaliauskas adds that the proportions of electricity production from renewable resources will also change in the coming months – as the days get shorter, electricity generation from the sun usually decreases, but the share of electricity generated by the wind increases. In addition, depending on the amount of precipitation, the production of hydropower plants may increase.
“However, what was shown by the storm that hit Lithuania at the beginning of this week is that the further away the weather is, the more difficult it is to predict accurately in advance. However, for residents who have chosen a fixed-price electricity plan, no external factors – be it declining electricity production due to weather conditions, connection repairs – have an impact on electricity bills”, explains the product development manager of Elektrum Lietuva.
2024-08-06 17:29:41