towards the end of the sixth wave?

by time news

In the street, stores or restaurants, most French people have now dropped their masks. The latter is no longer compulsory except in public transport and health establishments. Enough to suggest that the sixth wave, carried by the BA.2 sub-variant, is now forgotten.

→ ANALYSIS. Covid-19: declining hospitalizations but caregivers under pressure

The decline in Covid-19 cases seems to have been confirmed since the end of April. The incidence rate fell below the threshold of 1,000 cases per 100,000 inhabitants. It is now around 630. Similarly, the health authorities did not identify according to the latest figures, updated on 1is May, “that” 36,726 new cases. That’s a lot, but it’s also 37.7% less than the previous week.

Drop in positive tests

“The incidence of the epidemic is falling, that is a certainty”, confirms Bruno Lina, virologist and member of the scientific council. If he refuses to advance on a possible calendar, the scientist is optimistic: “We are at the end of the BA.2 wave and we are arriving in hot weather”.“A Confluence of Factors” which, according to him, gives hope for a “rapid and sustainable decline” the number of cases in the coming weeks.

EXPLANATION. Covid-19: after the fifth wave, the future of the pandemic remains uncertain

In pharmacies, the rate of positive tests continues to decrease. At 1is May, it peaked at 25%, down sharply from the previous week. A drop that clearly reflects the current dynamic: «With nearly 2 million tests per week, not counting self-tests, it would be wrong to say that the numbers are falling because we are testing less”, reassures Bruno Lina.

The virologist nevertheless calls for caution: “People must continue to confine themselves to isolation in the event of a positive test. Only maintaining this momentum could pull the number of cases down as quickly as possible. »

Two-speed decay

If hospitalizations continue to fall (- 21%), as well as critical care admissions (- 15%), hospital services remain under strain. “There are still serious cases, and other respiratory viruses are circulating (influenza, rhinovirus), which makes this decline difficult for health professionals to grasp”, affirmed the virologist Anne Goffard in The cross a few days ago.

For Bruno Lina, this two-speed decline is explained by a completely normal discrepancy between the incidence rate which is declining in the population and the pressure which persists in hospitals. «The patients today at the hospital actually arrived ten days ago. Coming out of intensive care takes time,” he explains.

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