The OECD publishes a report today detailing the state of the global economy and explaining why it is Lowers its forecasts for global growth – 2.2% in 2023, compared to the previous forecast of 2.8%. According to the report, many economies will be affected during the next two years by the bad macro factors currently prevailing in the world. The organization lowered Germany’s growth forecast for 2022 and 2023 by 0.7% and 2.4% respectively, when overall the country’s GDP in 2023 should decrease by 0.7% – did anyone say recession? The situation in most countries is not alarming and according to The report, inflation is not expected to disappear soon.
The war in Ukraine
The organization emphasizes in the report the sharp impact that the ongoing war in Ukraine has on the state of the world’s economies, so much so that it is probably the main factor in the change for the worse in the report compared to the last report that came out in June. About a week ago, the Kremlin sharpened its tone towards Ukraine and the West and announced the mobilization of hundreds of thousands of reserve soldiers. Following the announcement, citizens and soldiers fled the country to such an extent that the prices of flights leaving the country skyrocketed and the flights reached full capacity. The report emphasizes the impact of the war mainly in terms of food and energy prices, which rose most sharply in Europe.
The impact of the war on global GDP according to the report:
The corona is still a factor
According to the report, China’s GDP is expected to stand at 3.2% at the end of the coming year, a decrease of 1.2% compared to the previous forecast. The continued closures in the country make it difficult for businesses and factories to return to full function, which of course greatly affects all countries in the world, which are significantly dependent on exports Despite the negative forecast, the organization predicts that following measures by the Chinese government, which reach 2% of GDP, the Chinese economy will return to growing at a higher rate next year – 4.75%.
rising energy prices
It is no secret that energy prices in Europe are rising sharply these days and that they are expected to rise even more towards the winter (following the war in Ukraine). According to the report, Gas prices in Europe have more than tripled in the last year and are 10 times higher than the average recorded between 2010 and 2019.
Gas prices in the Netherlands and electricity prices in Germany since the beginning of 2021:
The expenditure of countries on energy as a percentage of GDP in 2022 compared to 2019 and 2021:
Inflation is still with us
Despite the interest rate hikes by the central banks around the world, the organization predicts that in most countries of the world inflation will continue to rise, even in 2023; The organization’s inflation forecasts for Germany and France rose by 2.8% and 1.3% respectively compared to the previous June report. The organization predicts that inflation in the US will stand at the end of this year at 6.2% and next year at 3.4%.
Inflation in the countries of the world in 2021, 2022 and forecasts for the end of the year and next year (in addition to the difference between the previous report and the current one): 
What next?
As the war in Ukraine escalates and winter approaches Europe with giant strides, energy prices are expected to continue to rise and, as a result, inflation as well. The central banks will have to work very hard to lower inflation and the chance that they will do so without causing a recession is diminishing in the face of the organization’s high inflation forecasts. Without a real miracle it is likely that this coming winter we will see many countries entering recession when the central banks continue to raise interest rates – the Fed is expected to raise interest rates up to 4.5% by the end of this year.
The GDP of the countries of the world in 2021-2022 and the forecast for the rest of this year and next year (in addition to the difference between the previous report and the current report): 
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