2023-08-01 23:20:07
© Reuters.
The trade balance – the difference between exports and imports – closed July with a surplus of US$ 9.035 billion, disclosed this Tuesday (1st) by the Ministry of Development, Industry, Commerce and Services (MDIC). The result is the best for the month of July and represents an increase of 68.7% compared to the same month last year, based on the daily average.
With the July result, the trade balance ended the first seven months of the year with an accumulated surplus of US$ 54.1 billion, a record result for the period since the beginning of the historical series, in 1989.
Regarding the monthly result, the record occurred despite both exports and imports falling in July. Last month, Brazil sold US$ 29.062 billion abroad, down 2.6% compared to the same month in 2022 based on the daily average. Purchases from abroad totaled US$ 20.027 billion, down 18.2% using the same criteria.
On the export side, the drop in commodities (primary goods with international quotation) was mainly responsible for the retraction. After breaking a record in the first half of last year, after the start of the war between Russia and Ukraine, commodities retreated in recent months, causing a retraction in foreign sales. The record harvest of grains contributed to hold back the drop in exports.
Last month, the volume of exported goods rose 14.1%, while prices fell 14.2% on average compared to the same month last year. In imports, the quantity purchased fell by 2.7%, but average prices fell by 14.8%.
Sectors
When comparing the agricultural sector, the record harvest of grain weighed more on exports. The volume of goods shipped rose 26.7% in July compared to the same month in 2022, while the average price fell 18.7%. In the manufacturing industry, the quantity rose 1.9%, with the average price retreating 6.3%. In the extractive industry, which encompasses the export of ores and ore, the quantity exported rose by 31.5%, while average prices fell by 26%.
The most prominent products in agricultural exports were unground (-7.3%), natural honey (-69.1%) and unroasted (-12.6%). Except in the case of coffee, affected by the smaller harvest, this decrease is mainly due to prices. The positive highlight for , whose exports rose 3.2% between July last year and July this year. The record harvest made the volume of soybean shipments increase by 31.9%, but the average price fell by 21.8%.
In mining and quarrying, the main falls were registered in iron ores and concentrates (-15.9%) and copper ores and concentrates (-11%) in the same comparison. In both cases, the quantity exported rose, but average prices fell with the accommodation of international quotations after the first anniversary of the war between Russia and Ukraine.
Regarding crude petroleum oils, which are also classified within the extractive industry, exports rose 8.2%. Average prices dropped 35.7% compared to July last year, but the quantity shipped increased 68.2%, driven by production growth.
In the manufacturing industry, the biggest falls occurred in fuel (-32.3%), in fresh, refrigerated or frozen (-30.4%) and in semi-finished products of iron or steel (-27.1%).
Regarding imports, the main decreases were registered in the following products: and unground rye (-42.4%); unground barley (-61.1%) and unground corn (-47.3%), in agriculture; (-28.6%), other ores and base metal concentrates (-20.9%) and non-agglomerated coal (-7.1%), in mining and quarrying; and organo-inorganic compounds (-37.6%) and fertilizers or chemical fertilizers (-64.8%), in the manufacturing industry.
Regarding fertilizers, whose purchases from abroad are still impacted by the war between Russia and Ukraine, the drop is mainly due to the 57.7% decrease in prices. The imported quantity dropped 16.8% in July compared to July last year.
I estimated
Despite the devaluation of commoditiesthe government foresees a record surplus of US$ 84.7 billion, against the previous projection of US$ 84.1 billion, made in April.
According to the MDIC, exports will decrease by 1.4% in 2023 and will end the year at US$ 330 billion. Estimates are updated every three months. Imports will drop 10% and close the year at US$ 245.2 billion.
Forecasts are much more optimistic than those of the financial market. The Focus bulletin, a survey of market analysts released every week by the Central Bank, projects a surplus of US$ 66 billion this year.
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