2024-04-22 18:49:51
The traffic light government is facing its most difficult task to date: in the coming weeks it will negotiate the 2025 austerity budget. If it fails, the entire alliance threatens to collapse.
When Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) appears in front of the press these days, he appears emphatically relaxed. He smiles charmingly at the journalists, asks many questions and takes his time to answer them. He radiates calm.
There is little to suggest that he – and with him the entire top staff of the traffic light government and its coalition – are anything but relaxed at the moment. Because after the traffic light agreed at the beginning of the year with a lot of trouble on a budget for the current year 2024 that complies with the debt rules, negotiations about money will be held again in the coming weeks and months. And they will be tough, for Lindner as the responsible minister, but also for his cabinet colleagues.
With the 2025 budget, the traffic light government has to do two things at once: It has to save a lot of money, a double-digit billion amount. And at the same time free up at least a little bit of money for important projects, such as stimulating the economy.
A dilemma – especially because many of those involved have already announced that they will not accept cuts. “Negotiations have never been as difficult as they are now,” say several Ampelians almost word for word. You have to think of the following sentence: If they fail, the alliance threatens to implode.
Difficult starting position after the Constitutional Court ruling
Of course, no one wants to say this openly. Not yet. And yet it is clear to everyone: the starting position could hardly be more challenging.
After the Federal Constitutional Court’s ruling on the debt brake, Chancellor Olaf Scholz (SPD), Economics Minister Robert Habeck (Greens) and Lindner agreed on a roadmap for state finances in December. First, the Bundestag should decide on the repaired budget for 2024, then the finance minister should give the other ministries specific spending requirements for the 2025 budget that they have to meet.
That alone is unusual. Normally, at the beginning of March, the federal ministers jointly negotiate and approve a list of budgets for the individual ministries in the cabinet, so-called “key values”, which the houses then negotiate with the Ministry of Finance until the parliamentary summer break. In the past, they often managed to get a little more money for themselves. Reason: The tax estimate, which traditionally comes in mid-May, usually forecast higher revenue for the tax authorities.
“Clear need for consolidation”
Because of the limited scope for debt and the weakening economy, which is unlikely to lead to a tax increase this year, the Ministry of Finance is now solely in charge. At the beginning of March, Lindner informed the ministries in a letter about a “clear need for consolidation”. The government has to save money this year, the houses should register their needs “in a clear manner” and at the same time please make additional savings suggestions.
Only the Ministry of Finance can currently estimate the exact amount of savings; it has not yet officially announced the amount. When asked by t-online, a ministry spokeswoman only spoke of an already fixed “need for action” amounting to 5 billion euros: “In addition, there are further burdens, so we are currently assuming a need for action in the lower double-digit billion range.”
According to t-online information, however, there is an amount of up to 25 billion euros in the room. This is the difference between the budget for the current year 2024 (around 477 billion euros) and the approach for the 2025 budget from the federal government’s medium-term financial planning (around 452 billion euros). This is a kind of budget preview that the government presented in the summer – and which should apply until further notice.
Tough negotiations from May 2nd
According to a savings list reported by the “Bild” newspaper, the savings per ministry range between around 5.2 billion euros for the Ministry of Transport under Lindner’s party colleague Volker Wissing (FDP) and a few million euros for that of Steffi Lemke (Greens). led environment ministry. According to the report, individual houses are even allowed to plan with more money despite the austerity regime. For example, the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs of Hubertus Heil (SPD): He should receive 2.8 billion euros more than in 2024. Money that will probably largely go towards the statutory pension increase.