Tropical Storm Harold Heads for Texas Coast, Marking Fourth Storm in 48 Hours
Tropical Storm Harold is projected to make landfall on the south coast of Texas today after forming in the Gulf of Mexico overnight. This marks the fourth storm in just 48 hours during an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season.
Following the formation of storms Emily, Franklin, and Gert, Harold is expected to move inland over South Texas by noon, according to the National Hurricane Center. The National Weather Service reports that over a million people along the eastern coast of Texas are under a tropical storm warning.
Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Hilary recently lashed the West Coast over the weekend. Although the other three storms formed in quick succession, only Franklin is anticipated to remain a threat to land on Tuesday, with tropical storm warnings issued for the southern coasts of the Dominican Republic and Haiti.
Harold currently has sustained winds of 45 miles per hour, with higher gusts, according to the Hurricane Center. Once winds reach 74 miles per hour, a storm becomes a hurricane, and it becomes a major hurricane at 111 miles per hour.
As of early Tuesday, Harold is approximately 150 miles away from the small coastal community of Port Mansfield, Texas, moving west-northwest toward land. The Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and will continue through November 30.
In late May, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted a “near-normal” amount of 12 to 17 named storms this year. However, on August 10, NOAA officials revised their estimate upward to 14 to 21 storms.
Last year, there were 14 named storms, following two extremely busy Atlantic hurricane seasons where forecasters ran out of names and had to use backup lists. The record-breaking year of 2020 saw 30 named storms.
This year, an El Niño pattern arrived in June, which typically hinders the number of Atlantic hurricanes. El Niño increases wind shear in the Atlantic, making it less likely for hurricanes to form. However, it reduces wind shear in the Pacific.
Additionally, this year’s heightened sea surface temperatures pose various threats, including the potential to supercharge storms. These factors have made accurate storm predictions more challenging.
Scientists widely agree that hurricanes are becoming more powerful due to climate change. Although the overall number of named storms may not increase, the likelihood of major hurricanes is rising. Climate change also affects the amount of rainfall storms can produce. Warmer air can hold more moisture, resulting in increased rainfall.
Furthermore, researchers have observed that storms have been moving slower over the past few decades, leading to prolonged periods of intense rainfall. Climate change may also contribute to greater storm surge, rapid intensification, and a broader reach of tropical systems.
The impact of climate change on hurricanes and their consequences is an area of ongoing research and concern among experts.
Contributing reporting by Mike Ives.