Democrat Troy Jackson holds a narrow lead over five-term Republican incumbent Susan Collins in Maine’s competitive U.S. Senate race, according to an early October Washington Post poll, as both candidates navigate recent endorsements, intense voter division over Donald Trump, and a shifting political landscape.
Polling data released in October shows Democratic challenger Troy Jackson locked in a tight contest against Republican U.S. Senator Susan Collins in Maine. According to a Washington Post and George Washington University Schar School poll of 800 likely voters conducted from September 30 to October 5, Jackson holds a four-point edge at 50 percent to Collins’s 46 percent, falling roughly within the survey’s 3.6 percentage point margin of error.
National Figures Step In as Endorsements Roll In
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Support from high-profile national Democrats has injected momentum into Jackson’s campaign less than a month before Election Day. Former President Barack Obama released a video endorsement on YouTube praising the challenger.
Troy worked 80 hours a week and still struggled to get by. So, as Maine Senate president, he fought to raise wages, lower the cost of prescription drugs and provide free lunch to every student in the state.
Barack Obama, former U.S. President
Obama also pointed to Jackson’s advocacy for reproductive rights following the overturning of Roe v. Wade, contrasting it with Collins’s 2018 vote to confirm U.S. Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh.
Ronald Schmidt, a political science professor at the University of Southern Maine, noted that Obama’s backing could drive crucial voter turnout among Democrats and moderate voters whom Collins has traditionally courted. In addition to Obama’s endorsement, Jackson has secured support from dozens of labor unions, including the International Association of Machinists, hundreds of Maine legislators and community figures, and California Democratic Representative Ro Khanna. Vermont independent Senator Bernie Sanders is also scheduled to hold multiple rallies alongside Jackson in Maine, starting in Bangor.
Voter Sentiment on Donald Trump and Senate Tenure
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National politics and Collins’s decades in Washington remain central factors in the race. The Washington Post survey found that 63 percent of respondents disapproved of President Donald Trump’s job performance, while 58 percent stated that Collins sides with Trump too much. Only 33 percent felt her relationship with the president is about right, and 52 percent viewed her 30 years in the Senate as a negative factor.
Despite those headwinds, Collins retains distinct advantages in specific policy areas. The same poll showed the incumbent leading Jackson by 24 points on bringing federal government funds back to Maine—a point emphasized by her campaign alongside her role as chair of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Plurality voters also favored Collins on bipartisanship, with 46 percent preferring her for working across party lines compared to 35 percent for Jackson.
Jackson Leads on Top Voter Concerns
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Voters ranked the cost of living at 41 percent as the top issue in the election, followed by immigration at 13 percent, healthcare at 12 percent, and taxes at 6%. Jackson maintains leads on several headline concerns, holding an 11-point advantage on the cost of living, a 9-point edge on healthcare, and a 16-point advantage on abortion.
Polling aggregators show the race remains exceptionally close. FiftyPlusOne averages place Jackson ahead by two points, while Decision Desk HQ listed Jackson at 49.3 percent to Collins’s 47.1 percent. However, other surveys, including a New York Times/Portland Press Herald/Siena poll released in September, showed Collins with a narrow lead within the margin of error.
Both campaigns continue to target a narrow pool of undecided voters. Meanwhile, surveys by co/efficient and the New York Times/Press Herald/Siena poll highlighted a potential visibility challenge for Jackson following his late entry into the race in July as the replacement for former nominee Graham Platner, with a segment of voters reporting no opinion on or unfamiliarity with the challenger.