How Trump and Harris Prepare for the Debate
On Tuesday, the big television debate finally happens. How Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are preparing – and which factors could decide the race.
On Tuesday, the election campaign could take a turn: the TV debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris is set to take place.
Photo: Mandel Ngan, Erin Schaff (AFP)
The race for the White House has been painfully deadlocked for weeks. Vice President Kamala Harris is hoping for a breakthrough just like former President Donald Trump.
Tuesday could be the turning point. On the TV network ABC, the Democrat and the Republican will face off in their first and possibly only showdown before Election Day. The debate promises drama and answers to many lingering questions. Can the 78-year-old Trump control himself, or will he insult the 19-year-younger woman? Can Harris articulate her positions without producing word salads – and how mentally fit is her opponent really?
Because so much depends on it, the Vice President is preparing carefully for the debate. She has retreated to Pittsburgh to study dossiers and practice question-and-answer routines. Three close confidants are assisting her, and Philippe Reines plays the role of Trump. The former advisor to Hillary Clinton is reportedly wearing a blonde wig during the practice rounds.
The training camp away from Washington is supposed to help Harris concentrate more. Additionally, she can campaign in the important swing state in the meantime. When asked how preparations were going, the candidate said on Wednesday: “So far, so good.”
The much more experienced debater Trump is foregoing special training rounds. He is preparing substantively in interviews and town halls for the duel. Excessive preparations in June supposedly only hindered President Joe Biden, Trump said. He quoted boxer Mike Tyson: “Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face.”
Trump announced that he would proceed in the debate as he did with Biden, allowing Harris to finish her statements. Contrary to what the Vice President desired, the same rules will apply: The debaters must stand for 90 minutes, cannot bring notes, and when one is speaking, the other microphone is turned off.
Before the duel takes place, it’s worth taking a look at the status of the head-to-head race:
National Polls
Since she replaced the sidelined Biden seven weeks ago, things have been going very well for Kamala Harris. A basic wave of enthusiasm in the Democratic Party has rapidly boosted the Vice President’s standing among voters. On August 5, she first overtook Donald Trump in the average national polls tracked by Real Clear Politics. Since then, she has consistently led, most recently on Friday by 1.8 percentage points. According to other averages, her lead is even 3.1 percentage points.
Swing States
However, the nationwide majority is insignificant, as victory goes to whoever gathers at least 270 of the 538 electoral votes. Key to this are likely seven contested swing states: the three Blue Wall states Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, as well as the four southern and southwestern states Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona, and Nevada. With the exception of Arizona, Harris has achieved a slight majority over Trump in all these states, although each is within the statistical margin of error.
Predictions
The average numbers do not indicate who will ultimately win. The experience of the two previous election cycles shows that polls usually underestimate the support for Trump at the ballot box. For example, the Republican won in 2016, even though he was significantly trailing in the contested states at the same time as this year. Since the end of August, betting markets have given Trump over fifty percent chance of winning. According to forecasts from renowned statistician Nate Silver on Friday, Trump will even win on November 5 with a probability of 61.5 percent. Harris has only a 38.3 percent chance of victory. “The Electoral College seems to be becoming a problem for Harris,” writes Silver. Since Congress, she has continuously lost ground, while Trump has benefitted from the support of former Democrat Bobby Kennedy Junior.
Campaign Fund
Harris raised a phenomenal $361 million in August, almost three times Trump’s $130 million. The lead allows her team to run more ads and intensively target the voters in the Swing States personally. However, TV spots and digital advertising lose their additional impact after a certain density.
Selection of Vice Candidates
The partners of both candidates have come under criticism. In the Republican camp, Senator J.D. Vance from Ohio is proving to be combative and rhetorically strong. However, he does poorly with women. The democratic governor Tim Walz from Minnesota presents vulnerabilities regarding his contacts with China and the controversial portrayal of his military service. Allegedly, some regret that Harris did not choose Walz’s colleague Josh Shapiro from Pennsylvania as her vice candidate, as he would have made victory in this crucial state easier for her.
Media
Since Harris stepped into Biden’s shoes, she has had the vast majority of the media on her side. According to a survey, 84 percent of all Harris stories were positive in the three major TV networks in the weeks leading up to August 19, while 98 percent of all Trump stories were negative. However, there is now a quiet grumbling because the Democrat does not want to explain her recently changed positions in interviews. A surprisingly critical report from “Axios” criticized Harris’ risk aversion and the fact that she is copying Biden’s “self-protection strategy.”
Bickering Over Ballots
In North Carolina and Michigan, Democratic election officials have tried to insist that the name Robert F. Kennedy Jr. remain on the ballots, despite him withdrawing as an independent candidate. In both states, courts decided on Friday that the name must be removed. If higher authorities do not overturn this, Trump does not have to fear losing votes intended for him to RFK Jr.
Economic Situation
After disappointing job numbers on Friday, many observers expect that the US Federal Reserve will lower interest rates by 0.25 to 0.50 percentage points in ten days. This could provide relief to many credit card borrowers and help the Vice President politically. However, if signs of an impending recession solidify, it would give Trump additional arguments.
Foreign Policy
Both factions in the Near East and in Ukraine have the ability to embarrass the Biden/Harris administration with military actions and thus aid Trump. Iran would likely want to avoid this, and for Israel, an affront to Washington would be risky. The true intentions of Vladimir Putin can be speculated upon. He will support Harris, Russia’s President said this week in Vladivostok. “She laughs so expressively and contagiously; so anything is good for her,” Putin said, smiling mischievously.
US Presidential Elections 2024
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Here’s what happens next leading up to the US election
September 10: The second presidential debate is planned at the Constitution Museum in Philadelphia, carried by ABC News. It will be the first meeting between Republican Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris.
October 1: The vice presidential candidates J.D. Vance from the Republicans and Tim Walz from the Democrats will meet for a debate on CBS in New York.
November 5: On Election Day, traditionally a Tuesday, a total of 538 electoral votes are up for grabs. Whoever gets 270 of them will be President of the United States. In addition to the president, all 435 members of the House of Representatives and 34 senators, one-third of the US Senate, are also up for election. Moreover, various states will have gubernatorial and other elections and voting on measures.
You can find our collected coverage of the US elections here.
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