Voters across the United States head to the polls on November 3, 2026, to decide control of both chambers of Congress while an Iran war and a flagging economy weigh on voters.
As the campaign enters its final stretch, control of the House of Representatives and the Senate hangs in the balance. Political trackers and polling averages point to a challenging electoral environment for Republicans, who currently hold majorities in both chambers. A shifting public sentiment has put several long-held seats in play and heightened the stakes for the president’s legislative agenda.
While the Midterm Primaries were held earlier in the year and determined the nominees, the Midterm General Election takes place on November 3.
Voters Disapprove of Iran War and Low Approval Ratings
A Reuters/Ipsos survey placed his job approval at 32 percent, falling below the previous low of 34 percent recorded by Gallup at the end of his first term following the January 6 attack on the US Capitol. Public dissatisfaction with the White House centers heavily on economic pressures and foreign policy.
Polling from the Associated Press and NORC Research Center indicates that 71 percent of adults disapprove of the president’s handling of the war, while 69 percent report the conflict has not been worth fighting. The conflict with Iran, launched alongside Israel in late February, has remained a dominant issue throughout the campaign cycle. Beyond foreign policy, voters have reacted sharply to rising inflation and record-high gasoline prices, which have directly shaped campaigning around affordability.
“More than half of adults say the country as a whole, the national economy, and their local economy are worse off since Trump was reelected in 2025,”
Associated Press/NORC Research Center survey
Henry Olsen, a senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center in Washington, DC, noted that public frustration extends beyond single issues. The broad stroke is that Americans are disappointed, bordering on angry that President Trump hasn’t delivered on the core promises he made when he won re-election,
he said.
Conservative political consultant Ryan Girdusky pointed to the same dual pressures in an interview with The Daily Wire, remarking that It’s pretty dire circumstances in both those states
while addressing the combination of inflation and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.
Democrats Gain Momentum in House and Senate Contests
Democrats enter the final month of the campaign with advantages on the generic ballot, where national surveys give them an edge ranging from the high single digits to the low double digits. Analysis from the Silver Bulletin polling average reflects a nationwide shift toward Democratic candidates even in traditionally Republican areas.
The House of Representatives features 435 seats up for election. The Cook Political Report shifted 15 competitive House races toward Democrats, putting the party on a trajectory to gain between 5 and 15 seats and secure the majority.
Kyle Kondik, managing editor at Sabato’s Crystal Ball, noted that the trajectory of the polling since Labor Day has generally been that a bad Republican environment is just getting worse,
adding that the Senate has grown increasingly competitive as the campaign has progressed. Meanwhile, the battle for the 100-member Senate involves 35 seats this cycle. Needing a net gain of at least four seats to win a majority, Democrats have seen several key battlegrounds move within striking distance.
Historical Parallels Draw From the 2006 Midterm Elections
Data compared from Wall Street Journal and NBC News polling reveals that Bush held a 39 percent approval rating between Labor Day and the 2006 election, ranking next-to-last among modern midterm cycles before Donald Trump’s current 37 percent rating in comparable metrics. Analysts looking for historical precedent have pointed to the 2006 midterm elections under President George W. Bush as a comparable political environment.
In 2006, voter debate centered on the war in Iraq, much as the current conflict in Iran dominates voter sentiment. In both instances, opposition parties capitalized on economic concerns and foreign entanglements to build momentum.
Parties Fight for Turnout in Final Weeks
While Democrats hold advantages in several marquee Senate matchups—including Georgia, where Jon Ossoff holds an 8-point lead against Trump-endorsed Mike Collins—Republican candidates are using local economic issues and ground organization to stem losses. Faced with tightening margins, Republican campaign organizations have deployed heavy financial resources into defending vulnerable territory.
Whether those mobilization efforts succeed in countering the national polling momentum enjoyed by Democrats remains the central question as voters prepare to cast their ballots on November 3.