President Donald Trump preemptively blamed Sen. John Cornyn and strategist Karl Rove for a potential Texas Senate loss as his endorsed candidate, Ken Paxton, trails Democrat James Talarico in recent polls ahead of the November 3 election.
With early voting set to begin on October 19, the high-stakes Texas Senate race has drawn more than $500 million in ad spending, turning a traditionally safe Republican stronghold into one of the most fiercely contested battlegrounds of the midterm cycle.
Donald Trump Points the Finger at John Cornyn and Karl Rove
President Trump took to social media to direct his frustration at party figures he accused of working against Ken Paxton. The president singled out Sen. John Cornyn—whom Paxton defeated in a contentious Republican primary in May—and conservative commentator Karl Rove, claiming they were doing everything possible to make the race difficult for the state attorney general.
🚨 TRUMP BLASTS JOHN CORNYN AND KARL ROVE OVER TEXAS SENATE RACE — ACCUSES GOP ESTABLISHMENT OF UNDERMINING KEN PAXTONPresident Donald Trump launched a blistering Truth Social attack Thursday against Republican Sen. John Cornyn and longtime GOP strategist Karl Rove, accusing…
— https://x.com/MDBayNews/status/2110833851027149049
If Ken Paxton loses, it will be because of WEAK and INEFFECTIVE Political Hacks like John Cornyn and Karl Rove, who have ineffectively opposed me for my entire political career.
President Donald Trump, via Politico
Trump urged supporters of Cornyn to unite behind the nominee, declaring that voters should immediately switch their support to Ken Paxton.
Polling Pressures and Massive Fundraising Inflows in Texas
Recent surveys show a remarkably tight contest between the Republican nominee and Democratic challenger James Talarico. A University of Texas and Texas Politics Project poll released on October 13 found Talarico leading Paxton 50 percent to 47 percent, while a Marist poll conducted between October 8 and 11 placed Talarico at 47 percent and Paxton at 45 percent.
The financial scale of the campaign matches its political intensity. Talarico announced a record $64 million haul for the third quarter of 2026, driven largely by small-dollar contributions where 97 percent of donations were under $100, according to his campaign. Meanwhile, outside Republican groups and super PACs have poured immense resources into the state, including $158 million given by billionaire Elon Musk to the Senate GOP’s main super PAC in September.
Scandals, Leaks, and Unlikely Republican Alliances
Paxton’s campaign has faced relentless hurdles, including a series of leaked private recordings and public disclosures regarding his personal life and past impeachment by the Republican-controlled Texas House over bribery and abuse of office allegations. Despite past opposition, some GOP lawmakers who voted for his 2023 impeachment have stepped forward as pragmatic allies for the sake of party unity.
At an outdoor rally in San Marcos, Talarico directly targeted his opponent’s record, telling voters that the state is experiencing an affordability crisis rooted in a corruption crisis. Even Donald Trump acknowledged his nominee’s polarizing nature during a White House appearance, describing Paxton as a little bit controversial.
During the primary election that disrupted decades of electoral dominance by the senior senator, Paxton captured 63.8 percent of the ballots compared to 36.2 percent for Cornyn, according to records from the Texas Tribune. In response to the high-stakes battle, Trump’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., pledged at least $10 million to help the Republican nominee close the polling gap as early voting approaches on October 19.
Vice President JD Vance campaigned for Paxton at the Tyler Pounds Regional Airport, acknowledging to reporters that the nominee is participating in a notably tight contest. Vance noted from personal history that substantial incoming financial opposition can produce an effect even within a reliably red state.
Meanwhile, former House Speaker Dade Phelan has chosen to remain entirely out of the Senate race. On the other side of the political spectrum, former strategist Karl Rove stated in an opinion piece for the Wall Street Journal that he intended to vote for Democrat Jon Rosenthal over Republican Bo French in a separate Texas Railroad Commission race.