President Donald Trump is seriously considering a 90-day U.S. diesel export ban after pump prices surpassed $6.50 a gallon. The proposal, aimed at lowering domestic costs ahead of the November midterm elections, has sent European diesel crack spreads to record highs and triggered deep concern across international markets heavily reliant on American shipments.
White House Weighs a 90-Day Export Halt as Pump Prices Peak
U.S. President Donald Trump confirmed that the White House is thinking about it very seriously
when asked about restricting foreign shipments of the fuel while attending the Presidents Cup golf tournament in Illinois. The push follows a dramatic threshold reached on Tuesday, September 22, when average U.S. diesel prices surpassed $6.50 a gallon at pumps nationwide. According to AAA, prices hovered around $6.50 a gallon, up sharply from a year ago and just below the record high of $6.53 reached on September 22.
Politico reported that the Trump administration prepared a concrete plan to ban diesel exports for 90 days, aiming to keep the restriction in place until the end of the year—traditionally the peak season for diesel demand in North America and Europe. Energy Secretary Chris Wright indicated that the administration is reviewing targeted restrictions rather than a complete prohibition. Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that officials are actively studying whether a full or partial ban would be effective.
The domestic political calendar heavily frames the debate. With midterm elections approaching in November and polls showing Republicans facing heavy losses, the temptation to lower fuel costs for voters remains strong. Yet the proposal has triggered immediate pushback from the domestic oil industry. Mike Sommers, CEO of the American Petroleum Institute, warned in a public statement that restricting U.S. energy exports would only compound the problem—exacerbating refining challenges and ultimately hurting consumers.
European Markets Shocked by Record Crack Spreads
The threat of an American export cutoff struck Europe at the worst possible moment. European diesel prices surged immediately, pushing the fuel’s premium over Brent crude—known as the crack spread—to more than $95 a barrel on Wednesday, September 23. That figure marks a record in Bloomberg data stretching back to 2011.
Europe has leaned heavily on U.S. refineries as its primary overseas supplier. American shipments surged to a weekly record near 2 million barrels a day last month, filling the void left by lost imports from the Middle East and ongoing Russian export curbs. In recent months, the United States has supplied roughly half of Europe’s total diesel imports.
“An export ban would be devastating for diesel supplies in Europe; it would be a struggle to replace them.”
Josh Michalowski, Argus
Benedict George, head of European product pricing at Argus Media, noted that any active U.S. restriction would likely drive European diesel prices and premiums to a new unprecedented level. Despite the anxiety, George added that many European oil traders largely doubt the White House will ultimately follow through, given the intense opposition expected from domestic U.S. oil corporations.
Global Refining Bottlenecks and Conflict Pressures
Global diesel markets were already enduring a severe deficit before the export ban threat materialized. Worldwide refining capacity has dropped by roughly five million barrels per day due to the ongoing wars in Iran and Ukraine. Kerstin Hottner, head of commodities at asset manager Vontobel, explained that the broader refining system lacks sufficient spare capacity to compensate for these losses, with remaining facilities already operating near maximum output.
The supply crunch is compounded by regional disruptions across vital trade corridors. Persian Gulf exports face growing transit difficulties through the Strait of Hormuz and the Red Sea. At the same time, continuous Ukrainian attacks targeting Russian oil refineries—waged in response to the war initiated by Vladimir Putin—have forced Moscow to extend its own diesel export curbs.
President Trump has repeatedly urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to halt strikes against Russian refineries, arguing that the attacks are hurting the world by keeping fuel prices elevated. Ukraine, however, maintains that those petroleum facilities remain legitimate military targets as it faces another brutal winter under the threat of renewed Russian assaults on its own energy grid.
Latin America and Downstream Economic Ripple Effects
While Europe absorbs the initial shock to its crack spreads, South America and Central America face an even more direct threat to their fuel stability. Jorge León, head of Geopolitical Analysis at Rystad Energy, pointed out that nearly a third of all U.S. diesel exports go to South America, with Central America also taking a major share. Together, those regions account for nearly half of total American foreign diesel shipments.
Commodity analysts at Morgan Stanley warned in a research note that a U.S. export restriction might lower domestic prices temporarily, but it carries severe downstream consequences. Not only would diesel prices be higher globally, but the policy could trigger a feedback loop that pushes U.S. gasoline prices upward as refineries adjust their operational runs.
Inside the United States, soaring fuel costs have placed heavy financial strain on farmers, agricultural workers, and freight operators. In Europe, where road freight transport relies on diesel for nearly two-thirds of its energy consumption, governments and industries are actively evaluating emergency measures—including potential reductions in gas and electricity consumption—to prepare for a tighter supply environment if Washington formally enacts the export ban.