The White House confirmed Tuesday that President Donald Trump engaged in a direct call with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu amid escalating tensions in Lebanon, where a fragile ceasefire between Hezbollah and Israel teeters as Iran threatens wider regional conflict. The conversation followed Trump’s public claim that Hezbollah had pledged to halt attacks on Israel—though Israeli ground forces continue pushing toward the Zahrani River, their deepest incursion in 25 years.
Trump’s “Eternity” Ceasefire Claim
Trump’s announcement—made via his Truth Social platform—carried a defiant tone, framing the agreement as a potential turning point. “Let’s see how long that lasts—Hopefully it will be for ETERNITY!” he wrote, a phrase that underscored both his optimism and skepticism about the deal’s durability. The White House did not immediately confirm whether the ceasefire was formalized through direct negotiations or mediated by third parties, though Lebanese officials in Washington signaled the agreement was still preliminary.
According to The Guardian, the ceasefire—if it holds—would require Israel to halt strikes on Beirut’s Hezbollah-controlled suburbs, while the group would pause its rocket attacks on northern Israel. But the Israeli military reported intercepting two projectiles fired from Lebanon into northern Israel just hours after Trump’s statement, suggesting violations may already be underway. Netanyahu, in a statement that omitted any mention of a ceasefire, reaffirmed Israel’s commitment to “continuing military operations in southern Lebanon,” where ground troops are advancing toward the Zahrani River—a move Hezbollah lawmaker Hassan Fadlallah called a “violation of any agreement.”
Iran’s Red Lines and the Straits of Hormuz
The ceasefire’s fragility is compounded by Iran’s direct threats to escalate. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned that any crossing of “red lines” in Lebanon or Gaza would trigger “direct war,” according to state media. Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, reinforced this stance on X, stating that “violation on one front is a violation of the ceasefire on all fronts,” and that the U.S. and Israel would bear responsibility for any broader conflict. The IRGC’s intelligence organization added that Iran would keep the Strait of Hormuz closed in response to Israel’s offensive in Lebanon—a move that could send global oil prices spiraling.
For more on this story, see Trump, Iran, and Global Tensions: U.S.-Israel Hormuz Plans.
The ceasefire already in place between Iran and the U.S. is being tested, with Araghchi’s warning framing the Lebanon conflict as a litmus test for Tehran’s broader strategy. Analysts note that Iran’s threats are not empty: in 2024, the IRGC temporarily blocked tankers in the Strait of Hormuz during tensions with the U.S., disrupting 20% of global oil shipments. With Iran’s economy still reeling from sanctions and its proxy networks in Lebanon and Gaza under pressure, the current standoff could force Tehran to choose between retaliatory strikes or risk further isolation.
Netanyahu’s Silent Defiance
Netanyahu’s refusal to acknowledge the ceasefire publicly marks a sharp contrast with Trump’s overt diplomacy. Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, a hardline ally of Netanyahu, went further, declaring in a statement that “the time has come to say no to Trump and continue striking Hezbollah in Lebanon.” Ben-Gvir’s stance reflects a growing rift within Israel’s coalition government, where some factions view Trump’s intervention as an attempt to undermine Netanyahu’s military strategy. The Israeli prime minister’s silence on the ceasefire suggests he may be testing its limits—or preparing for its collapse.
Al Jazeera reported that Israeli ground forces have reached the Zahrani River, marking their deepest penetration into Lebanon since the 2006 war. This advance—coupled with Netanyahu’s refusal to pull back troops—suggests Israel may be prioritizing a military victory over a negotiated settlement. Hezbollah’s Fadlallah, however, framed the ceasefire as a precondition for broader talks, insisting that Israeli troop withdrawals must accompany any halt in hostilities.
This follows our earlier report, Guerre au Moyen-Orient : frappes du Hezbollah, navires chinois… Le résumé du jeudi 14 mai.
The Ceasefire’s Uncertain Future
Lebanon’s embassy in Washington announced plans to expand ceasefire talks with Israel in the coming days, but the process has stalled repeatedly since the war began in March. The current agreement—if it survives—would apply only to Beirut and its suburbs, leaving southern Lebanon’s battle lines intact.
- Iran’s response: Will Tehran interpret even limited Israeli withdrawals as a victory, or will it demand a full retreat from Lebanon?
- Netanyahu’s political calculus: Can he sustain domestic support for continued military operations amid rising civilian casualties in Lebanon?
- Trump’s leverage: Will the U.S. enforce the ceasefire, or will it allow Israel to dictate the terms?
The stakes are higher than a local conflict. A collapse of the ceasefire could draw the U.S. into direct confrontation with Iran’s proxy forces, while a successful de-escalation might finally open a path to broader peace talks. For now, the region remains on edge—with Trump’s “eternity” gambit hanging in the balance.
What’s next? Lebanon’s embassy will push for expanded talks in Washington, but without Netanyahu’s explicit buy-in, the ceasefire’s fate remains uncertain. Meanwhile, Iran’s threats to the Strait of Hormuz add a new layer of risk: global markets are already bracing for potential disruptions. The next 72 hours will determine whether Trump’s diplomacy holds—or whether the Middle East slides further into chaos.
