Trump Tariffs: Impact on EU Member States

by Grace Chen

US Imposes New Tariffs on European Nations Amid Greenland Dispute

A looming trade war between the United States and Europe is escalating as the US president threatens to impose additional tariffs on eight European countries, beginning February 1st, in response to their deployment of military personnel to Greenland. The tariffs,starting at 10% and potentially rising to 25% by June 1st,represent a significant escalation in transatlantic tensions and could have far-reaching consequences for the global economy.

The move comes despite a trade agreement reached between the United States and the European Union in Turnberry during the summer of 2025. Currently, the 27 EU member states already face a 15% tariff on most exports to the US. these new tariffs threaten to substantially increase that burden, with varying impacts across the bloc.

The effective tariff rate already differs considerably between member states, influenced by export structures and existing exemptions. According to the European Commission,Malta and Ireland currently experience the lowest rates-less than 5%-largely due to their substantial exports of pharmaceutical products,wich are exempt from tariffs. Conversely, Luxembourg faces a rate of nearly 30%, while France’s rate exceeds 10%.

Among the nations targeted by the additional tariffs, Sweden and Germany are projected to be the most heavily affected. Sweden, notably vulnerable due to its high reliance on exports to the US as a percentage of its GDP, could see its effective tariff rate jump to 22.2% with the 10% increase,according to Bloomberg Economics. This compares to a projected 18.1% for the Netherlands, expected to be the least impacted. France would also experience a near doubling of its effective tariff rate.

Should the Trump administration proceed with the full 25% tariff, the rates would surge to 37.2% for Sweden, 37% for Germany, and 36% for both France and Finland. The Kiel Institute for the World Economy estimates that a 10% tariff could lead to an 11.1% decline in Danish exports to the US, a figure comparable to the anticipated 11.6% drop for exports to the United Kingdom. Swedish and French exports could fall by 10% and 9.4%, respectively. A full 25% tariff could trigger an almost 9% reduction in overall European exports to the united States.

Did you know? – The US and Denmark have a long-standing dispute over Greenland,which the US has previously considered purchasing.This latest trade conflict appears directly linked to European military deployments on the island.

Despite the escalating tensions, initial data suggests a limited immediate impact on overall trade. In the first 11 months of 2025, both exports and imports between the US and the EU increased by 5%.However, this figure masks underlying volatility. A surge in exports-a 26% increase-occured in the first quarter of the year, driven by US orders placed in anticipation of the tariffs. This was followed by a significant contraction, with exports falling by 21% in the second quarter and 3% in the third.

Pro tip – Businesses heavily reliant on transatlantic trade should immediately assess their supply chains and explore alternative markets to mitigate potential losses from the tariffs.

The situation remains fluid, with the potential for further escalation if a resolution regarding the purchase of Greenland is not reached by June 1st. The looming tariffs underscore the fragility of international trade relations and the potential for geopolitical disputes to rapidly disrupt global commerce.

Why,Who,What,and How did it end?

Why: The US imposed new tariffs on eight European nations in response to their deployment of military personnel to Greenland,stemming from a long-standing US interest in potentially purchasing the territory.

Who: The United States, under its president, initiated the tariffs against eight European countries (Sweden, Germany, France, finland, Denmark, UK, Malta, and Ireland). The European Union, and specifically the European Commission, is responding to the economic impact.

What: The

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