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The first fifteen 15 days of September reported the lowest inflation for the period since the registration was made, when located in 4.66%, mainly due to the significant drop in agricultural products such as fruits and vegetables that started the year affected by a extreme heat and one severe drought.
In the case of the underlying index, a minimum was observed since 2020. As in August, it is the drop in food (unprepared) that has surprised, according to financial analysts.
Despite the good news, the drop was not greater because an increase in tuition fees was detected. private schools after returning to school and in the prices of gas LP.
Alejandro Saldaña, financial analyst at Bx+, commented that there are signs with these indicators so that the Bank of Mexico announce a new adjustment to rates in its decision this Thursday.
“We estimate that year-on-year inflation will exhibit some deceleration in the rest of this year. However, we recognize that the outlook is still uncertain and upward risks persist,” he projected.
He said that a minor is expected economic growth and that will moderate prices somewhat more, “however, elements persist that could cause inflation to take longer than expected to clearly subside and not get closer to the goal of the Banxico (3%) neither this nor next year.”
Saldaña anticipated that the additional volatility The exchange rate can affect the prices of imported goods and that is an inflationary risk.
He also projected that the accumulated wage pressures (the increase to the minimum) will limit the slowdown in services more than expected and this will imply that there will be new shocks in the non-core due to geopolitical tensions or events. adverse climate and the pressure accumulated in past months.
He recalled that the Fed (the US central bank) also began its cycle of lowering interest rates with a “super cut” of 50 basis points, so “we estimate it is more likely that Banxico announce this Thursday a cut of 25 basis points in the target rate.
Meanwhile, an economic analysis of Citibanamex carried out by Ivan Arias, He pointed out that despite the drop in inflation in the first fifteen days of September, “we do not see conditions for additional significant falls in merchandise inflation considering that it is well below its average.
The risks continue to be the recent depreciation of the peso, producer price inflation and the slowdown that We estimate that private consumption would be concentrated in services.
“On the other hand, pressures on service prices remain high and the annual inflation of this component remains persistently above 5%”.
He added that the decrease in pressures on the underlying component will be more generalized until conditions in the labor market relax, of which certain signs of materialization.
“In this sense, we estimate that the annual core inflation remain relatively constant and close 2024 in 4.0%. Given the panorama described, we estimate that annual general inflation will maintain a gradual downward path and be located at 4.4% at the end of 2024.”
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2024-09-30 02:22:24