Turkey is currently preventing the start of talks between Finland and Sweden joining NATO. Turkey’s statement of opposition to the move comes shortly after the Nordic countries submitted formal requests, signaling what could be a complicated process of expanding the alliance and redesigning post-Cold War security architecture.
Turkey’s opposition denied NATO Secretary – General Jens Stoltenberg the consensus he needed to move forward in the membership process. It also cooled the solemnity of the historic moment for the two countries that for many years refused to align militarily with one side or the other, until the Russian invasion of Ukraine revolutionized their security thinking.
According to two officials who know the details of the hearing and spoke anonymously, at a meeting of NATO ambassadors, Turkey said it needed to whitewash some issues related to Finland and Sweden joining the alliance. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has opposed Sweden’s decision to grant asylum to members of the Kurdistan Workers ‘Party (PKK), noting that it will require other concessions as a condition of its approval to promote the countries’ accession.
NATO officials estimate that Turkey will eventually relinquish its resistance and allow the expansion of the expansion, which will double the continental border with Russia. But a process that was expected to take months anyway could become even slower and more complicated.
A second source of uncertainty is Russian President Vladimir Putin’s response. In some ways, Finland and Sweden are most vulnerable to a Russian attack in the period before their actual accession, when they will not yet be included in the mutual protection guarantees guaranteed by NATO. According to European sources, the two countries are ready for combined or covert Russian attacks. Several allies pledged that Finland and Sweden would be protected as early as the Middle Ages.
Stoltenberg called Wednesday’s request a “historic step”: “I welcome the requests of Finland and Sweden to join NATO,” he said at a news conference in Brussels, with ambassadors from both countries. “You will be our closest partners, and your membership in NATO will increase the common security of us all.”
US President Joe Biden also welcomed the submission of requests, ahead of a meeting with Swedish Prime Minister Magdalena Andson and Finnish President Sauli Ninista at the White House: The most powerful in history ”.
The two new members will bring NATO’s full force to the far north and strengthen the military alliance’s presence in the Baltic Sea region. The Alliance will acquire two sophisticated and highly experienced armies operating near the border with Russia. Sweden also owns the strategically important island of Gotland, just 320 kilometers from the Russian army in Kaliningrad.
Finland and Sweden have not seen themselves as neutral until today. Militarily, they were close associates of NATO. Politically, they are members of the European Union. But their self-definition as militarily unidentified was an important part of how they perceived themselves. Prior to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, most citizens of the two countries said they felt more secure outside NATO. In recent months, however, there has been a dramatic fluctuation in public opinion.
“This is an extraordinary development given where we were in February,” said Anna Wieslander, director of Northern Europe at the Atlantic Council Research Institute. “Russia wanted to turn back time, return to the Cold War, split the West and weaken it. Now, in May, we are here. “
Erdogan left the door open for ratification of the two countries, but made it clear that he wanted the concerns he expressed to be addressed by NATO and Sweden and Finland. “We are one of the countries that gives the greatest support to Allied activity, but that does not mean we will unequivocally agree to any proposal,” he told party members in Ankara. “NATO expansion is significant for us, but it should respect our sensitivities.”
He said that Turkey had asked Sweden to extradite “30 terrorists” – a nickname for members of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which the United States and Turkey defined as a terrorist organization – “and they said they would not extradite them.” You will not give us terrorists, but ask us to join NATO. “NATO is a security organization, and we can not agree with the denial of security from this security organization.”
If Turkey removes the barriers it has set to accession talks, it can move forward, a senior NATO official said yesterday. He said Turkey’s move was a “small glitch”.
Apart from the achievements of Turkey, it may take many months for each of the member states to officially ratify the membership of Finland and Sweden. Other companies in the alliance expressed support for the proposal upon its submission. British Prime Minister Boris Johnson said it was a “historic day for our alliance and the world”: “Until recently, no one would have foreseen this move, but Putin’s appalling ambitions have changed the geopolitical contours of our continent,” he wrote on Twitter.
In a statement to the media, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said that Canada would “wholeheartedly approve its request without reservation”: “Their armies are talented and highly capable, and we have full confidence in the ability of both countries to integrate quickly into NATO.”
Among the reasons for his invasion of Ukraine, Putin cited the threat of NATO expansion. Russian officials have warned of “consequences” if Finland and Sweden join, but their rhetoric has been quieter in recent days.
Putin said this week that Finland and Sweden’s entry into NATO did not pose an immediate danger to Russia, but warned that “expanding military infrastructure into this area will certainly provoke a response on our part. The response will be examined based on the threats created for us. We will respond accordingly.”
In a phone call over the weekend, Putin told the President of Finland that the decision to join NATO was “wrong” and could adversely affect relations between Russia and Finland, but did not make specific threats, according to the call. Even senior NATO and European officials do not expect an aggressive response from Russia.
The state army is still chained to heavy fighting in Ukraine and has lost many soldiers and valuable equipment. Russia also withdrew forces from the border with Finland to fight Ukraine, thus reducing its ability to threaten the border militarily.
As the Nordic countries’ accession to NATO enjoys widespread support from their citizens, it seems that it will be difficult for Russia to influence their population. “There is no place to intervene and no place to make people change their minds,” said Henri Vanhanen, a foreign policy expert and adviser to the center-right National Coalition Party in Finland. “This is the democratic resilience we have against Russia. Any attempt to prevent Finland and Sweden from joining NATO is currently out of Russia’s reach. She has to come to terms with it. “