2024-09-08 10:45:48
United States Vice President and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris at a rally in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, September 2, 2024. In the United States, the 2024 presidential election is presented as history. First by his scenario: by withdrawing on July 21, Joe Biden also launched a second campaign, shorter than usual, while Americans are invited to vote in two months, on Tuesday, November 5 .Invested to replace the outgoing president on August 22, Kamala Harris is ahead of the Republican candidate, Donald Trump, in the national elections.
But the risks of this big loss, like the specifics of the American electoral system, in no way guarantee a victory for the Democratic camp. The televised debate scheduled for Tuesday September 10 between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump on the public channel ABC will be very important, and the suspense may last until the night of November 5.
What is the dynamic in the swing state?
National polls reflect the dynamics of American public opinion, but do not predict the outcome of the election. Indeed, the American election is held indirectly, with electors appointed in each of the states, it is more appropriate to concentrate on local power relations in swing states (“important” or “key” state) is likely to overturn the election.
Having the most power in the elections until the beginning of summer, former Republican President Donald Trump has now won, or even left, in many of these important states by Kamala Harris.
The Democratic candidate has made slight but steady gains over Donald Trump in Michigan and Wisconsin since the beginning of August, two states in the “rust belt” (“rust belt” refers to industrial decline) that Donald Trump managed to steal from the Democrats in 2016.
The conditions are, however, tighter in the other five (Arizona, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania). However, Kamala Harris did better than the polls obtained by Joe Biden in the spring, and quickly followed the lead taken by Trump.
Which categories of voters support Harris or Trump?
In geographic terms, unquestionably, it is among young voters, women and black and Hispanic voters that Kamala Harris regains the majority of votes, according to polls conducted in six of these seven important states by the New York Times/ Siena College in May then in August.
Incredibly, the vice president did better than current President Joe Biden in all categories, including among male voters and among those over 64, a sign of the outgoing president’s disproportionate suffering. The candidate even manages, according to these polling studies, to get the Democratic voters lost by Joe Biden.
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