Ty France’s potential go-ahead home run in the ninth inning of Saturday’s NLDS opener was ruled an out after the ball struck a roof cable at American Family Field. While the San Diego Padres challenged the call, the ground rules confirmed the ball remained live, securing a 3-2 victory for the Milwaukee Brewers. The teams, who finished the regular season as the best in baseball and the league’s hottest club respectively, faced off in a postseason series long expected to be decided by the slimmest of margins.
A Bizarre Ending at American Family Field
Because the umpires determined that the ball hit the cable while in fair territory, it remained a live ball, allowing Milwaukee left fielder Jackson Chourio to track the deflection and record the second out of the ninth inning. It marked the second time this season that a Padres player has been robbed of a potential home run by a stadium roof; Xander Bogaerts had a drive obstructed by catwalks at Tropicana Field in a game against the Tampa Bay Rays in late August.
San Diego manager Craig Stammen noted that the possibility of such an event had been discussed earlier in the day. We joked today at the umpires meeting about what would happen if the ball hit the roof,
Stammen said. It’s unlikely, but it happens.
Following the play, the Padres lobbied for a change in the rules, with France stating, You would think with all the technology and data that we have now, we’d be able to make a clear call on that. There should be something put in place right there. That shouldn’t be an out.
Statistical Analysis of the Ninth-Inning Drive
While the play ended the Padres’ momentum, data suggests a home run was not a certainty. According to MLB Statcast, the ball left France’s bat at 105.3 mph with a 49-degree launch angle. Analysts noted that no ball with those specific traits has been recorded as a home run in the Statcast era, with such batted balls historically holding a batting average of .037. Estimates indicated the ball would have cleared the fence in only one major league park: Houston’s Daikin Park.
Opinions on the field were split. Brewers catcher William Contreras, who hit the game-deciding solo home run in the seventh inning, told reporters he believed France’s ball would have gone out. Milwaukee manager Pat Murphy disagreed, stating definitively, It was going to be a foul ball for sure.
Left-hander Kyle Harrison recalled his teammate, righty Chad Patrick, saying, I think that ball’s gone, boys,
and other members of the Milwaukee coaching staff held similar beliefs. Despite the frustration, France acknowledged the significance of the moment, telling reporters, But that was a game-changing swing.
How the Brewers Secured the 3-2 Victory
The win was the result of a tight, bullpen-heavy contest. Milwaukee’s starter, Jacob Misiorowski, striking out six over four innings while allowing two runs and six hits. He set a postseason record for the fastest pitch with a 104.8 mph bullet on his opening hurl. After falling behind 2-0 early due to a pair of San Diego singles and a fielder’s choice, the Brewers tied the game in the third inning on a two-run home run by Jackson Chourio, the hardest-hit homer of his career.
The Padres struggled to capitalize on opportunities, finishing 1-for-9 with runners in scoring position and leaving 12 runners on base. Milwaukee manager Pat Murphy utilized a platoon of relievers—including Antonio Senzatela, Aaron Ashby, Abner Uribe, DL Hall, and Trevor Megill—to keep the Padres guessing. Megill, who was credited with the save, struck out two batters in the ninth, including Manny Machado, to finish the night. At first, it was, ‘Oh, crap,’ and then the home-plate umpire came up and said it was live no matter what,
Megill said regarding the confusion over the ground rule. Four years in this stadium, I’ve never seen that before. Just glad it worked in our favor there.
Looking Ahead to Game 2
The series continues Sunday, Oct. 4, in Milwaukee, with a 3 p.m. first pitch. The Brewers, who finished the regular season with a 103-59 record, carry home-field advantage into the matchup. Logan Henderson is slated to be on the mound for the Brewers in Game 2. As the Padres look to bounce back, the team remains focused on the best-of-five series, with France noting, We should be able to bounce back just fine from it.