Typhoon 10 (Shanshan) Forms Near Mariana Islands, Expected to Impact Japan Next Week

2024/08/22 04:07 Weather News

At 3:00 AM on August 22 (Thursday), a developing tropical depression in the Mariana Islands became Typhoon No. 10 (Shanshan). This marks the sixth typhoon occurrence this month.

▼ Typhoon No. 10 August 22 (Thursday) 3:00 AM
Center position: Mariana Islands
Size category: //
Intensity category: //
Movement: Northwest slowly
Central pressure: 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed: 18 m/s (near the center)
Maximum gust speed: 25 m/s

The typhoon is moving northward with a storm area, and the likelihood of it affecting Japan next week is increasing. Please pay attention to future paths and typhoon information.
» Latest typhoon information

Next week the likelihood of impact on Japan increases

Looking at the forecast for its intensity, it is expected to develop into a storm area by around August 24 (Saturday) to August 25 (Sunday) and may become a “strong” typhoon by five days from now.

According to the forecast track, Typhoon No. 10 is likely to pass near the Ogasawara Islands around August 25 (Sunday) and is expected to move northward off the southern coast of Honshu around August 27 (Tuesday) five days from now.
» Radar wind mode (wind flow)

Reference: Numerical simulation results of the predicted track calculated by meteorological agencies around the world

Each thin line in this figure represents the results of numerical simulations calculated by meteorological agencies around the world. These results come from calculations of the center of low pressure using an ensemble forecasting method, where intentional errors are introduced in the initial values to examine the reliability of the forecast.

When comparing these, the trend of moving northward off the southern coast of Honshu is generally aligned, indicating that the likelihood of affecting Japan has significantly increased. Although the variability is relatively small considering the forecast period, slight differences in the projected path can lead to large discrepancies in the areas affected and the extent of the impact, so it is necessary to pay attention to changes in the forecast. The margin of error is expected to decrease over time, so please pay attention to future information.

Probability of entering the storm area of the typhoon

The following are the prefectures where the probability of entering the storm area of the typhoon is over 3% within five days (Japan Meteorological Agency):
Amami region: 2 %
Okinawa main island region: 13 %
Miyako Island region: 54 %
Yaeyama region: 72 %

This is the sixth typhoon occurrence this month

Average typhoon occurrence numbers

The occurrence of typhoons is three days after Typhoon No. 9 developed on August 19 (Monday). This is the sixth typhoon occurrence this month.

Looking at the average annual occurrence of typhoons, August averages 5.7 typhoons, making it the month with the highest occurrence of typhoons. With six typhoons having already occurred this year, it can be said that the pace is around the average or slightly above it.

As we transition from summer to autumn, it is likely that more typhoons will approach near Honshu, leading into the full-fledged typhoon season, so please ensure that typhoon and heavy rain measures are in place.
» Radar satellite cloud image mode

Name of the typhoon

Typhoon names are pre-prepared by member countries of the international organization “Typhoon Committee,” with 140 names available, which are given in the order of occurrence.

The name of Typhoon No. 10, “Shanshan,” is a name proposed by Hong Kong and is derived from a girl’s name.
» Radar typhoon mode

Reference materials, etc.