Typhoon 10 (Shanshan) Stalls in Mariana Islands: Potentially Strong Impact on Japan Next Week

2024/08/22 16:00 Weather News

As of 15:00 on August 22 (Thursday), Typhoon No. 10 (Shanshan) is almost stationary over the Mariana Islands. This weekend, it is expected to move north in the vicinity of the Ogasawara Islands along with a storm zone, and next week, there is a high likelihood of significant impacts near Honshu. Please pay attention to the future path and typhoon information.

▼ Typhoon No. 10 – August 22 (Thursday) 15:00
　Center Position: Mariana Islands
　Scale Class: ／／
　Strength Class: ／／
　Movement: Almost stationary
　Center Pressure: 1000 hPa
　Maximum Wind Speed: 20 m/s (near the center)
　Maximum Gust Speed: 30 m/s
» Latest typhoon information

Forecast to Approach with “Strong” Force

Looking at the strength forecast, Typhoon No. 10 is expected to develop to the point of having a storm zone by tomorrow, August 23 (Friday), and there is a possibility that it will become a “strong” typhoon by August 25 (Sunday).

Considering the track forecast, Typhoon No. 10 is likely to pass through the vicinity of the Ogasawara Islands around August 25 (Sunday), and it is increasingly probable that it will move northward to just south of Honshu around August 27 (Tuesday), posing a threat to Honshu and Shikoku.

Moreover, while it is expected to move north-northwest up to around 30 degrees north latitude, there is a possibility that it will change its course to north to north-northeast thereafter. From August 27 (Tuesday) to August 28 (Wednesday) next week, there is a risk of severe weather affecting a wide area, particularly western and eastern Japan.
» Radar Wind Mode (Wind Flow)

Reference: Numerical simulation results of the forecast path calculated by meteorological agencies from around the world.

Each thin line in this diagram represents the results of numerical simulations conducted by meteorological agencies worldwide. This is the result of low-pressure center calculations using a technique called ensemble forecasting, which introduces intentional errors in the initial values to examine the reliability of the forecast and other factors.

Comparing these, there is generally a tendency for the typhoon to move northward south of Honshu, indicating a fairly high likelihood of impacting Japan. Although there is relatively little variation given the forecast period, routes passing west of Kinki to those passing near Kanto can be considered, complicating efforts to predict localized impacts.

Even slight differences in the path can lead to significant differences in the affected areas and the extent of impacts, so it is necessary to pay close attention to changes in the forecast. As time goes by, the margin of error is expected to decrease, so please stay tuned for future information.

Probability of Entering the Typhoon’s Storm Zone

The following prefectures have a probability of over 3% of entering the storm zone of the typhoon within the next 5 days (Meteorological Agency):
　Amami Region: 2 %
　Okinawa Main Island Region: 13 %
　Miyako Island Region: 54 %
　Yaeyama Region: 72 %

This is the sixth typhoon of the month

The occurrence of this typhoon is three days after Typhoon No. 9 formed on Monday, August 19. This is the sixth typhoon since the beginning of the month.

Looking at the average number of typhoons, August averages 5.7 typhoons, making it the time of year when the most typhoons typically form. Given that six typhoons have already formed this year, the pace appears to be on par with or exceeding the average.

As summer transitions to autumn, it is also likely that the number of typhoons approaching Honshu will increase, marking the start of the full-fledged typhoon season. Please prepare for typhoon and heavy rain countermeasures.
» Radar Satellite Cloud Image Mode

Name of the Typhoon

The names of typhoons are pre-selected from a list of 140 names suggested by member states of the international organization, the Typhoon Committee, and are assigned in the order they occur.

The name of Typhoon No. 10, “Shanshan (珊珊),” was suggested by Hong Kong and is derived from a girl’s name.
» Radar Typhoon Mode

Reference materials, etc.