Typhoon 10 (Shanshan) Strengthens as It Approaches Japan: Heavy Rain and Strong Winds Expected

2024/08/23 10:10 Weather News

As of 9 AM on Friday, August 23rd, Typhoon No. 10 (Shanshan) is moving northwards in the Mariana Islands. It continues to develop, and by 3 AM this morning, a storm area with wind speeds of over 25 m/s has emerged.

▼ Typhoon No. 10 August 23 (Fri) 9 AM
　Location of the center 　Mariana Islands
　Size category 　／／
　Strength category 　／／
　Movement 　North 10 km/h
　Central pressure 　985 hPa
　Maximum wind speed 　30 m/s (near the center)
　Maximum gust speed 　45 m/s
» Latest Typhoon Information

Potential Direct Hit with Strong Force: Pay Attention to the Path

Typhoon No. 10 is expected to continue developing and is predicted to become a “strong” typhoon by tomorrow, August 24th. It is likely to maintain its strength as it moves north throughout next week.

Looking at the expected path, Typhoon No. 10 is forecast to travel north for a while before changing its course more westward, advancing northwest near 30 degrees north latitude. After that, it is expected to change its direction to north-northeast, with a high probability of approaching or making landfall in Honshu or Shikoku around August 27 (Tuesday) to August 28 (Wednesday). It is also possible that it will continue moving north-northeast, taking on the characteristics of an extratropical low-pressure system as it heads toward northern Japan.

There are concerns that strong winds and heavy rain will have a significant impact on areas close to the predicted path. Additionally, areas farther east from the track may also experience strong winds and severe weather, so caution is advised.

Reference: Numerical simulation results of the path calculated by meteorological agencies around the world

Each thin line in this figure represents the results of numerical simulations calculated by meteorological agencies around the world. This is based on the ensemble forecasting method which calculates the center of the low-pressure system, introducing intentional errors to the initial values to examine forecast reliability and other considerations.

Comparing these, there is a general trend of moving north of Honshu, indicating a considerably high possibility of affecting Japan. Although the variability is relatively small considering the forecast period, routes passing west of Kinki and those north of Kanto are all conceivable, making it difficult to narrow down specific regions and predict impacts.

Even slight differences in the route can lead to significant variations in the affected areas and the extent of impact, so it is essential to keep an eye on forecast changes. As time progresses, errors are expected to decrease, so please pay attention to future information.

Probability of Entering the Typhoon’s Storm Area

The probability of entering the typhoon’s storm area in prefectural forecast districts within the next five days is as follows (Meteorological Agency):
　Amami region 　2 %
　Okinawa main island region 　13 %
　Miyako Island region 　54 %
　Yaeyama region 　72 %

Heavy Rain Risk Before Typhoon’s Approach

Starting this weekend, an upper-level pressure trough will remain stationary west of the Japanese archipelago, facilitating the flow of moist air circulating around the Pacific high pressure. As a result, the activity of the front stalling near Honshu will become active. Additionally, the influence of moist air from Typhoon No. 10 will lead to unstable atmospheric conditions, raising the risk of heavy rain before the typhoon approaches.

While predicting where and when rain will intensify is still challenging, please pay attention to weather information even if you’re far from the typhoon.

Furthermore, it is expected that a similar pressure configuration will persist even after the typhoon passes.
» Radar Wind Mode (Wind Flow)

This is the sixth typhoon occurrence this month

The occurrence of Typhoon No. 10 comes three days after Typhoon No. 9 formed on the 19th of this month. This marks the sixth typhoon occurrence this month.

Looking at the average number of typhoon occurrences, August sees an average of 5.7 typhoons, making it the busiest month for typhoon occurrences throughout the year. Since six typhoons have already formed this year, it seems to be at a pace equal to or exceeding the average.

As we transition from summer to autumn, the number of typhoons approaching near Honshu is also expected to increase, marking the beginning of the full-fledged typhoon season, so please make preparations for typhoons and heavy rain.
» Radar Satellite Cloud Image Mode

Typhoon Name

The name of the typhoon is taken from a list of 140 names proposed by member countries of the international organization “Typhoon Committee,” assigned in the order of occurrence.

The name of Typhoon No. 10, “Shanshan (珊珊),” was proposed by Hong Kong and is derived from a girl’s name.
» Radar Typhoon Mode

Reference Materials and More