Typhoon 13 (Bebinca) Heading Towards Okinawa, Expected to Strengthen Over the Weekend

2024/09/11 10:36 Weather News

As of 9 AM on September 11 (Wednesday), Typhoon No. 13 (Bebinca) is moving north-northwest at 20 km/h over the Mariana Islands. It is expected to develop further while moving north, passing near Okinawa with strong winds and rain during the three-day weekend. Please stay alert for updates.

▼ Typhoon No. 13 as of September 11 (Wednesday) 9 AM
　Center position　　　Mariana Islands
　Size classification　　／／
　Strength classification　　　／／
　Movement　　　　　North-Northwest　20 km/h
　Central pressure　　　990 hPa
　Maximum wind speed　　　25 m/s (near the center)
　Maximum gust speed　35 m/s
» Latest Typhoon Information

Passing Near Okinawa with Strong Winds

Looking at the forecast path for Typhoon No. 13, there is a high probability it will pass near Okinawa between Saturday, the 14th, and Sunday, the 15th, moving into the East China Sea.

It is expected to develop further while moving northwest and may become strong as it approaches Okinawa. The sea surface temperature near Okinawa is high, and the upper wind conditions create an environment conducive to typhoon development, so there is a possibility it may develop more than expected. Areas near its path may be affected by strong winds and heavy rain, so please pay attention to future information.

Due to the strengthening Pacific high-pressure area near Honshu, the likelihood of the typhoon moving directly north has decreased. However, rain is likely on the Pacific side of western Japan due to the surrounding moist air. Additionally, the path after moving into the East China Sea remains uncertain, so we cannot rule out the possibility of impact there as well. Please keep an eye on future updates.
» Radar Wind Mode

Reference: Numerical simulation results of the predicted path calculated by meteorological agencies worldwide

The thin lines in this diagram represent the results of numerical simulations calculated by meteorological agencies around the world. These are derived from a method called ensemble forecasting, depicted to illustrate the significant variation in the expected path.

Comparing these members shows that, while there is a general tendency for the storm to move north-east of Japan, there is significant variation in predictions on whether it will veer northeast or head toward Honshu. If it follows a westward course, there is potential for wind and rain impacts around the time of the three-day weekend, so it is necessary to closely monitor changes in the forecasts. The error margin is expected to decrease over time, so please stay tuned for updates.

Probability of Entering the Typhoon’s Strong Wind Area

The following are the probabilities of entering the typhoon’s strong wind area within five days where they exceed 3% (Japan Meteorological Agency):
　Amami Region　　　2 %
　Okinawa Main Island　13 %
　Miyako Island Region　54 %
　Yaeyama Region　　72 %

September is a Peak Time for Typhoon Approach

Average Number of Typhoons

The occurrence of typhoons has been on the rise after the formation of Typhoon No. 12 on September 5 (Thursday), making this the third one this month.

According to average statistics, the occurrence of typhoons is highest in September with an average of 5.0, following August. Meanwhile, the average number of approaches is 3.3, which is the same as August, and the average number of landfalls is 1.0, making September the month with the highest landfalls during the year.

As we enter the full-fledged typhoon season, please ensure you are prepared for typhoons and heavy rainfall.
» Radar Satellite Cloud Image Mode

Typhoon Names

Typhoon names that arise in the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea consist of a list of 140 names proposed by member countries of the international organization “Typhoon Committee,” which are assigned in the order they occur.

The name of Typhoon No. 13, “Bebinca,” was proposed by Macau and derives from a traditional pudding name.
» Radar Typhoon Mode

Reference Materials