Typhoon 14 Approaches: Okinawa Urged to Prepare as Storm’s Course Predicted to Bring Strong Winds and Rain

2024/09/16 10:45 Weather News

As of September 16 (Monday) 9 AM, the large Typhoon No. 14 (Plasan) is moving through the Mariana Islands.

▼ Typhoon No. 14 September 16 (Monday) 9 AM
　Current Location Mariana Islands
　Size Category Large
　Strength Category ／／
　Movement North at 20 km/h
　Central Pressure 1000 hPa
　Maximum Wind Speed 18 m/s
　Maximum Gust Speed 25 m/s
» Latest Typhoon Information

Okinawa Should Prepare for the Typhoon Early

Based on the forecast path for Typhoon No. 14, it is expected to follow the route of Typhoon No. 13, moving northwest along the southern coast of Japan, and is predicted to pass near Okinawa around September 18 (Wednesday) before heading towards the East China Sea.

No significant development is expected, and it is forecasted not to bring heavy winds even at its peak, but there might be strong winds, high waves, and heavy rain in areas close to the expected path such as Okinawa and Amami, so please pay attention to future route information.

Note that the “large” designation indicates a wide wind field and is not related to strength.
» Radar Wind Mode

Reference: Numerical simulation results of forecast paths calculated by meteorological agencies worldwide

Each thin line in this figure represents the results of numerical simulations calculated by meteorological agencies from various countries. These are results obtained through a method called ensemble forecasting, and they are presented to illustrate the significant variability in the expected paths.

When comparing these members, while there is a general tendency to move northwards east of Japan, it can be seen that there is variability in predictions diverging northeastward and those heading toward Honshu. If a more westerly path occurs, there is a possibility of impacts from winds and rain around the three-day weekend, so close attention is needed for forecast changes. As time passes, the margin of error is expected to decrease, so please stay updated with future information.

Probability of Entering Typhoon’s Wind Zone

The forecast prefectures where there’s a probability of entering the Typhoon’s wind zone of 3% or more within the next five days are as follows (Japan Meteorological Agency):
　Amami Region 2 %
　Okinawa Main Island Region 13 %
　Miyako Island Region 54 %
　Yaeyama Region 72 %

New Typhoon Expected to Form

The Japan Meteorological Agency announced at 9 AM on September 16 (Monday) that the tropical depression east of the Philippines is “expected to develop into a typhoon within the next 24 hours.”

This tropical depression is predicted to move westward into the South China Sea, so there will be no direct impact on Japan.

▼ Tropical Depression September 16 (Monday) 9 AM
　Current Location East of the Philippines
　Movement Northwest slowly
　Central Pressure 998 hPa
　Maximum Wind Speed 15 m/s (near center)
　Maximum Gust Speed 23 m/s
» Radar Wind Mode

September is a Period of Frequent Typhoons

Average Number of Typhoons
The occurrence of typhoons has been noted since Typhoon No. 13 formed on the 11th (Wednesday), and this is the fourth one this month.

Looking at the average number of typhoons, September averages 5.0 occurrences, making it the second most active month for typhoons after August. Meanwhile, the average number of approaches from typhoons is 3.3, equal to August, and September has the highest average for landfalls at 1.0.

This is the peak typhoon season, so please prepare for typhoon measures and heavy rain precautions.
» Radar Satellite Cloud Image Mode

Typhoon Names

The names of typhoons that form in the northwest Pacific and South China Sea come from a list of 140 names proposed by member countries of the international organization “Typhoon Committee.” These names are assigned in the order of occurrence.

The name of Typhoon No. 14 “Plasan” was suggested by Malaysia and is derived from the name of a fruit.
» Radar Typhoon Mode

Reference Material and Others