Typhoon 18 (Krathon) Forms Near Philippines, Set to Impact Okinawa and East China Sea

2024/09/28 10:36 Weather News

At 9 AM on September 28 (Saturday), a developing tropical depression east of the Philippines became Typhoon No. 18 (Krathon). This is the eighth typhoon to form this month.

▼ Typhoon No. 18 September 28 (Saturday) 9 AM
　Center Position　 East of the Philippines
　Size Class　　／／
　Intensity Class　　　／／
　Movement　　　　　Southwest 15 km/h
　Central Pressure　　　1000 hPa
　Maximum Wind Speed　　　18 m/s (near the center)
　Maximum Gust Speed　25 m/s
　Strong Wind Area Radius　390 km

» Latest Typhoon Information

Approaching the Okinawa Sakishima Islands with Strong Force; Expected to Move North in the East China Sea

Typhoon No. 18 is expected to gradually turn north and strengthen, with maximum wind speeds near the center reaching 40 m/s by 9 AM on October 1 (Tuesday).

Afterwards, it is predicted to weaken slightly as it approaches Taiwan, but it is expected to approach the Okinawa Sakishima Islands with strong force around October 2 (Thursday). There is a risk of severe weather with strong winds and heavy rain in Okinawa. Please prepare for the typhoon early.

After October 3 (Thursday), it is expected to move north in the East China Sea, but the path and intensity are still difficult to predict with certainty. There is a possibility it may move toward the Sea of Japan via the westerly winds, which could significantly affect regions like Kyushu and Honshu. Please stay updated with the latest information.
» Radar Wind Mode (Wind Flow)

Reference: Numerical Simulation Results of Typhoon Tracks Calculated by Meteorological Agencies Worldwide

Each thin line in this diagram represents the results of numerical simulations conducted by meteorological agencies around the world. It is published to illustrate the considerable range of possible tracks obtained through the ensemble forecasting method (members).

Comparing these members, while there is a general tendency to head north of Japan, there is variability in predictions diverging northeast and heading towards Honshu. If the path moves westward, there is a possibility of wind and rain impacts around the long weekend, so it is necessary to pay close attention to changes in forecasts. As time passes, the errors are expected to decrease, so please stay tuned for future updates.

Probability of Entering the Typhoon’s Strong Wind Area

The following are the prefectural forecast areas with a probability of 3% or more of entering the typhoon’s strong wind area within 5 days (Japan Meteorological Agency).
　Okinawa Main Island Area
　　Northern and Central-Southern Main Island 5 %
　　Kerama and Aguni Islands 8 %
　　Kumejima 11 %
　Miyako Islands 32 %
　Yaeyama Islands
　　Ishigaki Island Area 45 %
　　Yonaguni Island Area 47 %

Typhoon No. 17: Possible Impact on Kanto Depending on Its Path

Typhoon No. 17 is expected to pass west of the Ogasawara Islands around the 30th (Monday). Caution is needed for high waves, strong winds, and temporary heavy rain on Chichijima and Hahajima.

After that, it is expected to change its path slightly eastward and continue moving north, passing over the sea east of Kanto around October 1 (Tuesday) with a strong wind area.

Typhoon No. 17 is relatively small, so its impact area is narrow. If it passes near the center of the forecast circle, the impacts will be limited to high waves along the coast and temporary increases in wind strength. However, if it moves closer to land, some rain clouds may affect the Izu Islands and parts of Kanto.

Due to the slight variations in path, the impacts can change significantly, so please pay attention to future updates.

Be Cautious of Autumn Typhoons

Average Annual Typhoon Count

The occurrence of typhoons is the eighth this month since Typhoon No. 17 formed on the 27th (Friday). Compared to the average, the number of typhoons in September is higher.

Autumn typhoons not only frequently make landfall in Japan but are also characterized by stronger intensity upon approach. The real typhoon season continues into October, so please prepare typhoon and heavy rain countermeasures in advance.
» Radar Satellite Cloud Image Mode

Typhoon Names

The names of typhoons that occur in the Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea consist of 140 names proposed by member countries of the international organization “Typhoon Committee,” which are assigned in the order of occurrence.

The name of Typhoon No. 18 “Krathon” was proposed by Thailand and is derived from the name of a fruit (in English, Santol).
The name of Typhoon No. 17 “Jebi” was proposed by South Korea and is derived from the Korean word for swallow (the bird).
» Radar Typhoon Mode

Reference Materials and More