Typhoon Babianca Set to Strengthen as it Approaches Okinawa: Precautions Advised

2024/09/11 16:19 Weather News

As of 15:00 on September 11 (Wed), Typhoon No. 13 (Bebinca) is moving northwest at a speed of 20 km/h in the Mariana Islands. It is expected to strengthen and bring strong winds, passing near Okinawa during the three-day weekend. Caution is necessary due to the potential for rough weather.

▼ Typhoon No. 13 September 11 (Wed) 15:00
　Center Position: 　Mariana Islands
　Size Category: 　／／
　Intensity Category: 　／／
　Movement: 　Northwest 20 km/h
　Central Pressure: 　990 hPa
　Maximum Wind Speed: 　25 m/s (near the center)
　Maximum Gust Speed: 　35 m/s
» Latest Typhoon Information

Concern of passing through Okinawa at peak strength

Looking at the forecast track of Typhoon No. 13, it is increasingly likely to pass near Okinawa from September 14 (Sat) to September 15 (Sun) and move into the East China Sea.

It is expected to strengthen while moving northwest as it approaches Okinawa. The sea surface temperature near Okinawa is high, and the upper-level wind conditions create an environment conducive to the development of the typhoon, which means it could develop more than expected. Regions close to the predicted path should be cautious of stormy weather, including strong winds, heavy rain, and high waves. Please check for the latest information frequently and take measures early.

As a strong Pacific high-pressure system is spreading near Honshu, the possibility of the typhoon moving directly north is decreased, but the Pacific side of western Japan may experience rain due to the surrounding moist air. Additionally, the path after it moves into the East China Sea remains uncertain, so it cannot be said that there will be no impact. Please also pay attention to future information.
» Radar Wind Mode (Wind Flow)

Reference: Numerical simulation results of the predicted path calculated by meteorological agencies from around the world

Each thin line in this figure represents the results of numerical simulations calculated by meteorological agencies worldwide. These are obtained from ensemble forecasts, which are included to illustrate the considerable variation in possible paths.

Comparing these members, while there is a general tendency to move northward off the east coast of Japan, there is variability between predictions that move northeast after that and those that head toward Honshu. If a westward path is established, there is a possibility of wind and rain impacts around the three-day weekend, so attention to changes in the forecast is necessary. As time goes by, the margin of error is expected to narrow, so please pay attention to future information.

Probability of entering the storm area of the typhoon

The forecast areas where there is a probability of entering the storm area of the typhoon is 3% or more for up to five days are as follows: (Japan Meteorological Agency)
　Amami Region: 　2 %
　Okinawa Main Island Region: 　13 %
　Miyako Island Region: 　54 %
　Yaeyama Region: 　72 %

September is a time when typhoons approach frequently

Average number of typhoons occurring

The occurrence of typhoons is the third this month, following Typhoon No. 12, which formed on September 5 (Thu).

Looking at the average number of typhoons, September has an average of 5.0 typhoons, making it the second most active month for typhoons following August. In contrast, the average number of approaching typhoons is 3.3, the same as August, and the average number of landfalling typhoons is 1.0, making September the peak month.

As it is the peak typhoon season, please make preparations for typhoons and heavy rain, etc.
» Radar Satellite Cloud Image Mode

Name of the Typhoon

The names of typhoons that occur in the Northwest Pacific and South China Sea are predetermined by the “Typhoon Committee,” which is an international organization, with a list of 140 names provided by its member countries, and assigned in order of occurrence.

The name of Typhoon No. 13, “Bebinca,” is a name proposed by Macau and is derived from a traditional pudding.

» Radar Typhoon Mode

Reference materials, etc.