Typhoon Cimaron Approaches Japan: Heavy Rain Expected as Storm Weakens to Tropical Depression

2024/09/26 07:26 Weather News

As of 6 AM on September 26 (Thursday), Typhoon No. 16 (Cimaron) is moving westward over the sea south of Japan. It is expected to gradually change its course to the north and transform into a tropical depression by tomorrow. Due to indirect effects, there is a possibility of intensified rain in areas like Kanto.

▼ Tropical Depression September 26 (Thursday) 6 AM
　Center Position　　　South of Japan
　Size Class　　　／／
　Strength Class　　　／／
　Movement　　　　　West　Slowly
　Central Pressure　　　1002 hPa
　Maximum Wind Speed　　　18 m/s (near the center)
　Maximum Gust Speed　25 m/s
» Latest Typhoon Information

Reference: Numerical simulation results of the projected path calculated by meteorological agencies around the world.

Each thin line in this diagram represents the results of numerical simulations calculated by various meteorological agencies worldwide. These results are derived from a method called ensemble forecasting, which assesses the reliability of the forecast by introducing intentional errors in the initial values.

When comparing these, the tendency for the storm to move northward off the southern coast of Honshu is generally aligned, suggesting a high possibility of impact on Japan. Although the variations are relatively small considering the forecasting period, courses range from routes west of Kinki to those passing near Kanto, making it challenging to predict localized impacts.

Even slight changes in trajectory can lead to significant differences in affected areas and the degree of impact, necessitating close attention to forecast changes. As time progresses, the error is expected to shrink, so please stay updated with the latest information.

Moist air flowing in, rain clouds developing around Kanto

Although the sea surface temperature around the typhoon is high, the surrounding environment is not very conducive to development, and it is expected to revert to a tropical depression again on Friday, the 27th.

Even though it will become a tropical depression, it will send moist air toward a front off the coast of Honshu, leading to the development of rain clouds. On Friday, the 27th, rain is expected to intensify along the coast from Kanto to Shizuoka and the Izu Islands. When active rain clouds pass, there is a risk of extremely heavy rainfall exceeding 30mm per hour.

Currently, the timing and range of intensified rainfall predictions carry a high degree of uncertainty, and there is a possibility of heavy rain also in the Kanto Plain, including central Tokyo. Please check the latest information.
» Point Weather Forecast

The probability of entering the storm’s gale area within the next five days is as follows (Japan Meteorological Agency):
　Amami Region　　　　　　3 %
　Okinawa Main Island Region
　　Northern and Central Southern Regions 4 %
　　Kerama and Aguni Islands　3 %
　　Kume Island　　　　　　3 %
　Daito Islands　　　　　4 %
　Miyako Islands　　　　　4 %
　Yaeyama Region
　　Ishigaki Island Region　　　　4 %
　　Yonaguni Island Region　　　2 %

September is a time of many typhoon approaches

Average number of typhoons generated

The occurrence of typhoons is the sixth one this month since Typhoon No. 15 formed on the 19th (Thursday).

Looking at the average value of typhoon occurrences, September has an average of 5.0, making it the second most active month for typhoon formation after August. Meanwhile, the average number of approaches is 3.3, equal to that of August, and the average number of landfalls is 1.0, making September the month with the highest landfalls.

As we enter the full-fledged typhoon season, please make sure to prepare for typhoons and heavy rain.
» Latest Typhoon Information

Typhoon Names

The names of typhoons that occur in the Northwest Pacific and the South China Sea are pre-approved names proposed by member countries of the international organization “Typhoon Committee,” with a total of 140 names prepared in advance, assigned in the order of occurrence.

The name of Typhoon No. 16, “Cimaron,” was proposed by the Philippines and is derived from the meaning of wild cows or wild livestock.
» Radar Typhoon Mode

Reference materials, etc.