Typhoon Krathon Strengthens as It Approaches Okinawa, Warning Issued for Severe Weather

2024/09/29 17:10 Weather News

As of 15:00 on September 29 (Sunday), Typhoon No. 18 (Krathon) is moving north-northwest over the sea east of the Philippines with strong intensity. It is expected to further develop and gradually change its course to the east.

▼ Typhoon No. 18 September 29 (Sun) 15:00
　Center position　　　East of the Philippines
　Intensity class　　／／
　Strength class　　　Strong
　Movement　　　　　North-northwest 15 km/h
　Central pressure　　　975 hPa
　Maximum wind speed　　　35 m/s (near the center)
　Maximum instantaneous wind speed　50 m/s

» Latest Typhoon Information

Approaching the Okinawa Sakishima Islands with strong intensity

Wind forecast for October 1 (Tuesday) 15:00

Typhoon No. 18 has developed into a strong intensity. Due to the high sea surface temperatures and the favorable conditions for wind development in the surrounding areas, it is expected to continue to develop further, reaching very strong intensity by October 1 (Tuesday), with a central pressure of 950 hPa and maximum wind speeds near the center reaching 45 m/s.

After that, it is expected to slightly lose some intensity as it approaches Taiwan, but from around October 2 (Wednesday) to October 3 (Thursday), it is predicted to change its course eastward while maintaining strong intensity and approach the Sakishima Islands of Okinawa. As the typhoon approaches, there is a possibility of severe weather with strong winds and heavy rain in Okinawa. Please prepare for the typhoon in advance.

After October 3 (Thursday), it is expected to move northward in the East China Sea, but there is still uncertainty regarding its path and intensity. If it moves toward the Sea of Japan with the westerlies, the impact of the typhoon could increase in regions like Kyushu and Honshu. Please pay attention to future information.
» Radar Wind Mode

Reference: Numerical simulation results of predicted paths calculated by meteorological agencies worldwide

The thin lines in this figure represent the results of numerical simulations calculated by various meteorological agencies around the world. These are obtained during the process of ensemble forecasting (members) and are provided to visualize the considerable range of expected paths.

Comparing these members, while there is a general trend of moving north to the east of Japan, it is evident that there is variability in predictions moving northeast and those heading toward the Honshu region. If a westerly path is taken, there could be impacts from wind and rain around the three-day weekend, so close attention to changes in the forecast is necessary. As time passes, the error is expected to decrease, so please be mindful of future information.

Probability of entering the typhoon’s storm area

The probability of entering the typhoon’s storm area in the following prefectural forecast zones is 10% or more within five days. (Japan Meteorological Agency)
　Okinawa Main Island region　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　19 %
　　Main Island Northern and Southern Regions (excluding Kerama and Aguni Islands)　12 %
　　Kerama and Aguni Islands　　　　　　　　　　　　　15 %
　　Kume Island　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　19 %
　Miyako Island region　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　36 %
　Yaeyama region　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　61 %
　　Ishigaki Island region　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　50 %
　　Yonaguni Island region　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　61 %

Typhoon No. 17 may also affect Kanto depending on its path

Typhoon No. 17 is expected to pass west of the Ogasawara Islands around the day after tomorrow, October 30 (Monday). Caution is needed for high waves, strong winds, and temporary heavy rain on Chichijima and Haha-jima.

After that, it is expected to continue moving north while slightly changing its course eastward, passing over the sea east of Kanto around October 1 (Tuesday) with storm winds.

Typhoon No. 17 is relatively small, so the area of impact is narrow, and if it passes near the center of the forecast circle, the impacts are limited to high waves along the coast and temporary increases in wind. However, if it moves closer to land, some rain clouds may affect the Izu Islands and parts of Kanto.

Even slight differences in path can greatly alter the impacts, so please pay attention to future information.

Autumn typhoons require caution

The occurrence of typhoons has been notable since Typhoon No. 17 formed on the 27th (Friday) and it is the eighth this month. Compared to the average, the number of typhoons in September is higher.

Autumn typhoons are characterized not only by their frequent landfalls in Japan but also by their high intensity at the time of approach. October marks the peak of the typhoon season, so please prepare for typhoon and heavy rain measures.
» Radar Satellite Cloud Image Mode

Typhoon Name

The names of typhoons that occur in the northwestern Pacific and South China Sea are pre-assigned 140 names suggested by the countries and regions belonging to the international organization “Typhoon Committee.” They are given in the order of occurrence.

The name of Typhoon No. 18, “Krathon,” was proposed by Thailand and is derived from the name of a fruit (in English, santol).
» Radar Typhoon Mode

Reference materials, etc.