Typhoon Yagi Strengthens as It Heads Towards the South China Sea, Potential Impact on Okinawa

2024/09/02 04:59 Weather News

The typhoon No. 11 (Yagi), which occurred east of the Philippines at 9 PM last night, is moving northwest off the eastern coast of the Philippines. It is highly likely to advance into the South China Sea and develop further.

▼Typhoon No. 11 September 2 (Mon) 3 AM
　Location　　　East of the Philippines
　Size class　　／／
　Intensity class　　／／
　Movement　　　　　Northwest 25 km/h
　Central pressure　　　996 hPa
　Maximum wind speed　　　20 m/s (near the center)
　Maximum gust speed　30 m/s
» Latest typhoon information

Okinawa may be affected by high waves and other impacts

Typhoon No. 11 is expected to gradually strengthen and reach a strong intensity within five days. In Okinawa, there is a possibility of being affected by high waves, so please pay attention to future typhoon information.

Looking at the path, after moving north off the eastern coast of the Philippines, it is expected to change course westward and head towards the South China Sea. However, simulation results also show a slight possibility of heading towards Okinawa and then into the East China Sea, so caution is necessary despite the low likelihood.

As time passes, the prediction error is expected to decrease, so please pay attention to future information.
» Radar Wind Mode

Reference: Numerical simulation results calculated by meteorological agencies from various countries

The thin lines in this figure represent the results of numerical simulations calculated by meteorological agencies around the world. These are obtained during the process of ensemble forecasting (members) to give an idea of the considerable width of the expected paths.

Comparing these members, it is generally consistent that there is a tendency to move north off the eastern coast of Japan, but it is clear that there is variation in the predictions of diverging northeast and heading towards Honshu. If it takes a westward course, there is a possibility that wind and rain impacts will occur around the long weekend, so attention needs to be paid to changes in the forecast. As time passes, error is expected to decrease, so please pay attention to future information.

Probability of entering the typhoon’s strong wind zone

The probabilities of entering the strong wind zone of the typhoon within five days are as follows for the prefectural forecast areas with a probability of 3% or more. (Japan Meteorological Agency)
　Amami region　　　2 %
　Okinawa main island　13 %
　Miyako island region　54 %
　Yaeyama region　　72 %

September is a period of many typhoon approaches

Average number of typhoons per year

The occurrence of typhoons was since Typhoon No. 10, which occurred on August 22 (Thursday), making it the first typhoon of September.

Looking at the average number of typhoons, September has an average of 5.0, making it the time with the second highest typhoon occurrences after August. On the other hand, the average number of approached typhoons is 3.3, equal to August, while the average number of landfalls is 1.0, making September the highest in the year.

As the peak of the typhoon season approaches, please prepare for typhoon measures and heavy rain measures.
» Radar Satellite Cloud Image Mode

Typhoon Names

The names of typhoons are pre-prepared by international organization “Typhoon Committee” with 140 names proposed by member countries, and assigned in the order of occurrence.

The name of Typhoon No. 11, “Yagi,” is a name proposed by Japan, derived from the constellation Capricorn and the sign of the Goat.
» Radar Typhoon Mode

Reference materials, etc.