Childhood vaccination rates for measles, mumps and rubella are falling across the United States. Nearly 4 in 10 counties have seen MMR vaccination rates drop by more than 5 percentage points since 2019, according to an NBC News data investigation. Immunization coverage is falling below the 95% threshold needed to control measles, and health officials warn the country is vulnerable to outbreaks. This investigation, titled “The Vaccine Divide,” was updated in 2026 to track how childhood vaccine defenses continue to crack and crumble.
Nonmedical Vaccine Exemptions Rise Among Kindergarten Children
The number of children entering kindergarten whose parents opt them out of vaccines has climbed for at least a decade. In Illinois, nonmedical exemptions jumped 24% within one school year, according to data from the Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH).
Data collection varies by state. Mississippi, New Hampshire, and South Carolina provided data for grades K-12. Illinois and New York do not collect data by grade, with Illinois figures covering elementary schools through K-8. Montana stopped collecting vaccine and exemption data after 2019, citing the COVID-19 pandemic and a 2021 state bill, HB 334, which removed the mandate to collect such information.
Dr. Ravi Jhaveri, the Division Head of Infectious Disease at Lurie Children’s Hospital, said vaccine hesitancy for some stems from misinformation or mixed messaging.
Measles Elimination Status at Risk
The United States is potentially losing its measles-free status as the virus returns. Dr. Jhaveri said it is “almost a foregone conclusion” that the U.S. will lose this designation. There have been more than 5,000 measles cases in the U.S.
Most Illinois counties still meet the 95% threshold. Health officials said even small, unvaccinated pockets pose a risk. “With measles, that fraction is still too big because it’s so transmissible, but most parents are doing the things that they want to do to keep their kids and families safe,” Jhaveri said. He urged the public to remember vaccines protect their families.
Barriers to Access
Some families face practical hurdles to keeping vaccinations up to date, such as transportation issues or taking time off work. The Illinois Department of Public Health said it “continues to work closely with health care providers, schools, community organizations, and local health departments to increase vaccination access and coverage in communities with lower immunization rates.”
The number of children vaccinated for MMR is down 3.8% in Illinois since 2019. Experts said some families face clear barriers to accessing vaccines.
“If you have the power to protect your family, you should use it. Through our work at EverThrive Illinois, we continue to see that folks are ready to get this type of information, and to have these conversations, but they just need the folks in the community to be out there and readily available to assist them,” an organization representative said regarding the need for community support.
Regional Vaccination Trends
Data analyzed by the NBC News Health and Medical Unit and Stanford University found that since 2019, 83% of U.S. counties and jurisdictions reported declines in childhood vaccination rates. In the latest recorded year, 66% saw an increase in exemption requests.
Based on CDC data, Oklahoma’s kindergarten measles coverage stood at 87.8% in the 2025-26 school year. That rate falls into the CDC’s “Less than 90%” coverage category. Oklahoma sits in a cluster of nearby states, where Colorado reported 87.7%, Ohio reported 88.1%, Arizona reported 87.4%, and Utah reported 87.2%. The CDC lists a count of 47,844 alongside Oklahoma’s rate, which most likely reflects the kindergartners assessed.
“Over the last 10 to 15 years, I think many of us have recognized that across society, we’ve had a bit of complacency. We’ve taken our success for granted,” Jhaveri said. Readers concerned about vaccination status or exemption requirements should consult with their local health departments or qualified medical professionals to ensure their children are up to date on recommended immunization schedules.