UFC 319 & PFL Championships: Expert Picks & Best Bets

by liam.oconnor - Sports Editor

CHICAGO, Aug. 15, 2025 — MMA fans, get ready for a stacked weekend of fights. The Ultimate Fighting Championship is set to host its final summer pay-per-view in Chicago on Saturday, while the Professional Fighters League World Championships continue in Charlotte, North Carolina, on Friday.

Unbeaten Middleweights Clash in UFC 319 Main Event

South African champion Dricus Du Plessis defends his title against the undefeated Khamzat Chimaev in a highly anticipated middleweight showdown.

UFC 319 on Saturday night features a main event pitting South African middleweight champion Dricus Du Plessis against ESPN’s No. 2 ranked middleweight, Khamzat Chimaev. Both fighters enter the Octagon with unblemished records in the UFC, with Du Plessis holding a perfect 9-0 mark, including six stoppage victories. Chimaev boasts an equally impressive 8-0 record within the promotion, with six wins by stoppage.

The co-main event will see a significant UFC debut as former Bellator standout Aaron Pico faces undefeated featherweight contender Lerone Murphy. Murphy’s current eight-fight winning streak is the longest among active fighters in the 145-pound division. The winner of this bout could be positioned for a future title shot against champion Alexander Volkanovski.

  • Dricus Du Plessis and Khamzat Chimaev, both undefeated in the UFC, headline UFC 319.
  • Aaron Pico makes his UFC debut against Lerone Murphy in the co-main event.
  • The PFL World Championships will crown champions in lightweight, bantamweight, and women’s flyweight divisions.
  • Analysts predict Chimaev’s grappling pressure could overwhelm Du Plessis.
  • Betting insights favor Chimaev to win inside the distance and Godínez over Andrade.

The PFL World Championships, kicking off Friday, will see titles decided in the lightweight, bantamweight, and women’s flyweight divisions. Notable matchups include former Bellator champion Liz Carmouche facing Jena Bishop for the women’s flyweight title. Power strikers Alfie Davis and defending champion Gadzhi Rabadanov will compete for the lightweight championship, while Marcirley Alves and Justin Wetzell battle for the bantamweight crown.

What are the expert predictions for Du Plessis vs. Chimaev? UFC analysts and commentators are weighing in on the middleweight title fight, with many pointing to Chimaev’s relentless grappling as a key factor. Betting expert Ian Parker offers his insights on potential value bets across both fight cards.


Middleweight Championship Showdown

“Dricus won’t stop the takedown,” noted analyst Anthony Smith. “I don’t believe Du Plessis can stop the takedown, but is he going to be good enough to get back to his feet and strong enough to get out of those spots? I think he is good enough to get back to his feet. So, we’re going to see Khamzat do something he’s never done, which is fight through adversity in a five-round fight. I’m taking DDP because of that.”

Din Thomas, however, has shifted his prediction. “A couple months ago, I would have said DDP, but I’ve changed my mind,” Thomas stated. “I think Khamzat’s grappling pressure is going to be too much. DDP needs to be the better grappler to win fights and keep there where he wants, and that’s not the case in this one.”

Betting Insights

Odds accurate as of Thursday.

Parker: Chimaev to win inside the distance (-140). In what promises to be one of the year’s most compelling title fights, Du Plessis faces the formidable Chimaev. Parker believes Chimaev can overcome any early pace concerns. “I think Chimaev is going to surprise a lot of people by landing quality strikes early, freeing up his wrestling,” Parker explained. “We have seen DDP withstand when he has gotten tagged before, but he has not fought someone with the wrestling of Chimaev to back their striking. I think Du Plessis is in for a rude awakening.”


UFC Card Betting Analysis

Strawweight: Loopy Godínez vs Jessica Andrade

Godínez to win (-150). Andrade has become a benchmark for strawweight contenders. After being outpointed by Natalia Silva last September and finished in the first round by Jasmine Jasudavicius in May, Andrade faces Godínez. Parker predicts Godínez will employ a similar wrestle-heavy strategy that proved effective against Julia Polastri. “Once Andrade gets put on her back, or controlled for that matter, she tends to get finished,” Parker noted. “Unless she is able to go back in time and become the juggernaut she once was, I think she gets outgrappled by Godínez.” Godínez is coming off a unanimous decision win over Polastri on March 29.

Lightweight: Edson Barboza vs Drakkar Klose

Barboza to win (-140). Klose, fresh off a knockout loss, faces another potent striker in Barboza. Parker emphasizes Klose’s need to secure takedowns. “The reality is here, if Klose can’t get this fight to the floor and keep it there, he isn’t winning,” he said. Barboza’s striking, particularly his leg kicks, remains a significant threat. Parker anticipates Barboza will defend takedowns and wear Klose down with calf kicks.


PFL World Championships Betting Picks

Lightweight: Gadzhi Rabadanov vs. Alfie Davis

Rabadanov to win inside the distance. Rabadanov has evolved into a complete mixed martial artist, showcasing impressive finishing abilities. Parker believes this trend will continue against Davis, who possesses knockout power but faces a significant wrestling disadvantage. “Wouldn’t shock me if he gets the submission win,” Parker commented. For a safer bet, he suggests the under 4.5 rounds, anticipating a finish before the final bell.

Women’s Flyweight: Liz Carmouche vs Jena Bishop

Carmouche to win inside the distance. At 41, Carmouche continues to defy age, aiming for another tournament title. Parker expects Carmouche to secure a finish, likely via ground-and-pound from top position, unless Bishop can land an early submission. “Look for her to take top position and utilize her elbows and ground-and-pound to get the win,” Parker advised.

Bantamweight: Marcirley Alves vs. Justin Wetzell

Alves to win. Despite odds shifting to -225, Alves remains Parker’s pick. He highlights Alves’ exceptional takedown defense as a key advantage. “Alves’ takedown defense has been impeccable this season, and if the fight stays on the feet, he has a major advantage,” Parker said. He anticipates Alves will maintain a high striking volume to win the tournament.

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