UFC 325: Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 – How to Watch, Odds, and Expert Picks
Table of Contents
Stream UFC 325 live on Paramount+! Pay-Per-View is a thing of the past, as every UFC numbered event and UFC Fight Night is now available with a Paramount+ subscription, offering access to docuseries, replays, and archived fights.
The Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC) heads Down Under this Saturday for UFC 325, a star-studded event taking place in Sydney, Australia. The main card is scheduled to begin at 9 p.m. ET and will be streamed live on Paramount+, with the Qudos Bank Arena serving as the host venue. Much of the pre-fight discussion centers on the main event: a highly anticipated featherweight championship rematch between Alexander Volkanovski and Diego Lopes.
Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2: A Championship Rematch
Reigning two-time champion Alexander Volkanovski (27-4) aims to once again defeat challenger Diego Lopes (27-7). Their first encounter at UFC 314 last April saw Volkanovski secure a decision victory. The latest odds from DraftKings position Volkanovski as the -148 favorite, reflecting the anticipated support from the home crowd. Lopes, currently ranked No. 2 in the featherweight division, comes in at +124.
Volkanovski, 36, holds the distinction of being the first Australian-born fighter to win UFC gold and the oldest fighter to claim the featherweight championship. He previously topped the promotion’s pound-for-pound rankings in both 2022 and 2023, boasting an impressive 11-fight win streak within the featherweight division. Despite a recent 2-3 record, two of those losses came while challenging Islam Makhachev for the UFC Lightweight Championship. He also lost the featherweight title to Ilia Topuria in February 2024 before reclaiming the vacant championship in his subsequent bout against Lopes. Volkanovski’s victory over Lopes was characterized by a significant striking advantage, landing 158 significant strikes compared to Lopes’ 71. He has a career record of 11 decision victories, alongside 13 KOs and three submissions.
Lopes, 31, enters the fight with a youth advantage and a five-inch height difference over Volkanovski. The Brazilian fighter, with a background in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu, signed with the UFC in 2023. After an initial defeat, he embarked on a five-bout winning streak, earning “Performance of the Night” honors twice. His first title shot against Volkanovski at UFC 314, though a loss, earned him “Fight of the Night” recognition.
Since his first encounter with Volkanovski, Lopes secured a TKO victory against Jean Silva in September 2025, showcasing his finishing ability with a spinning elbow and punches. He now has 11 knockout victories, 12 submissions, and four wins by decision. Notably, neither fighter has suffered a loss by submission, though both have experienced defeat via knockout and on the scorecards.
Co-Main Event and Additional Bouts
The co-main event features a lightweight battle between No. 6 Dan Hooker (+250) and No. 8 Benoit Saint-Denis (-310). Other featured bouts on the main card include Rafael Fiziev (-102) vs. Mauricio Ruffy (-118), Tai Tuivasa (+245) vs. Tallison Teixeira (-305), and Quillan Salkilld (-1050) vs. Jamie Mullarkey (+675).
Expert Predictions and Betting Advice
According to a proven computer model developed by Mike McClure, Mauricio Ruffy is a strong pick at -120 (+6.0% edge) against Rafael Fiziev. “From a stylistic perspective, this is a clash between Ruffy, who profiles as a technical fighter, and Fiziev, who operates primarily as a power striker,” McClure stated. “There’s a reasonable chance we see a finish here — our model projects a 57% stoppage rate with knockout or TKO being the most common method at 47%. This is a modest edge on the favorite, but playable at this price. The model sees Ruffy as slightly more likely to win than the market suggests.”
The model, which has demonstrated a 6.1% ROI on UFC betting over 500 fights from 2023-25, also correctly predicted Justin Gaethje to win outright (+195) and the Over in total rounds in the main event at UFC 324. The model is also backing an underdog fighter to win outright in more than 50% of simulations.
Fans looking to place bets can take advantage of the DraftKings promo code, offering $300 in bonus bets with a winning wager.
For detailed picks and analysis from the advanced model, visit SportsLine. The model has analyzed Volkanovski vs. Lopes 2 from every angle to reveal its top betting picks and best bets.
