Military al Russian on the border with Ukraine (LaPresse)
Only Russia and the US decide on Ukraine and NATO in Eastern Europe, the EU remains to watch
Europe it doesn’t matter. Bitter truth that often pretends to hide or forget, but which becomes evident whenever important international summits are held or great geopolitical and strategic decisions are made, the Old Continent has no representatives sitting at the table. The latest demonstration comes from the ongoing multi-level negotiations between Russia, the United States and NATO. Disturbing detail: what will be decided and what is discussed on those tables has a direct effect on Europe itself, starting from its eastern flank, never so exposed to the elements of the clash between powers.
It is forbidden to think that this is a case. Only in the last few months, the cases of exclusion of the European Union from any vital decision are numerous and heavy. Starting with the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, on which Joe Biden and the Pentagon did not in the least take into account the opinion of the European partners. Just as neither Washington, nor London nor Canberra even dreamed of involving the EU (and not even France, a party involved as a victim in the affair) on the conclusion of the agreement AUKUS, which can redesign the defensive and strategic balances in the Indo Pacific. Footnote: announcement arrived a few hours before the presentation of the super announced strategy on the Indo Pacific of the European Union, in fact rendered irrelevant even before coming to light.
From Afghanistan to AUKUS to relations with Moscow: Europe does not take the ball
The table of Geneva and the talks that follow in these days on the axis of the protagonists of the first cold war is just the umpteenth confirmation of a reality that is difficult to accept but that no one can ever scratch: Europe does not count geopolitically for anything. At least, it doesn’t count as an active subject. Also because it does not have a unified position on almost any foreign policy dossier. From Mediterraneo al Middle East, from relations with China to those with African countries, each pursues their own interests without looking their neighbor in the face. Consequence: The United States and Russia talk to each other without involving the place on which their decisions can have the greatest impact.
Of course “strategic autonomy”, in the words of Emmanuel Macron. The EU stands by while the greats speak. And the gaze is worried, also because at stake is the projection of Moscow in north-eastern Europe, the enlargement of NATO and the deployment of vehicles and men along the eastern axis. On the other hand, the positions of the chancelleries of the Old Continent on relations with Russia are very different from each other. They range from the most hostile to the Kremlin to those who would instead like to involve Moscow in a dialogue that could rehabilitate it and restart the business relations, thus allowing to sever the ever stronger link that binds it to China.
Sweden and Finland want NATO, Eastern Europe (except Orban) anti Putin
Let’s start with the villages closest to the “playing field”. It is no mystery which countries Baltics, as well as the Scandinavian and Eastern European ones, are the most hostile to Russia. For historical, cultural, geopolitical, trivially geographical reasons. From here the Russian advance can be seen almost with the naked eye, just as the retreat was seen 30 years ago. Often countries that joined NATO after leaving Warsaw Pact. With those who tried to remain neutral, confident in the start of the post-Cold War dialogue which is now beginning to change its attitude.
Sweden and Finland in the first place, which are thinking of archiving decades of geopolitical strategy to try to enter NATO. Hypothesis that disturbs Vladimir Putin’s sleep, above all because a new enlargement of the Atlantic Alliance could also involve the landing of the house, that is to say Ukraine e Georgia. This is the real red line that the Tsar cannot accept being crossed. Staying east, too Poland, the Czech Republic and Slovakia they have at least a skeptical approach to relations with Moscow. L’Hungary by Viktor Orban, which, however, will face an uncertain election in the next few months, is Putin’s only true partner in the region, unless he goes down in the Balkans where the banks are multiplying, in particular in Serbia (not by chance not yet admitted to the procedure for entry into the EU).
Germany, France and Italy pro dialogue: but each one moves on its own
Going west, the positions are blunted. Especially between Germany, France and Italy. In different ways, all three EU heavyweight theorists are more inclined to dialogue with Moscow. Germany’s motivations are above all commercial and procurement, starting with those of raw materials. Just think of the disputed pipeline North Stream 2, the subject of the dispute between Berlin and Washington, as well as between Berlin and Kiev. Yes, because the route of the work bypasses the other countries to directly unite Russia and Germany. Too much for the United States, which sees a hiccup of strategic as well as commercial convergence.
The calculations of Macron instead they are mainly geopolitical. The need for strategic autonomy according to the French president is also and above all based on the possibility of fostering a diplomatic rapprochement that can extinguish the fuse on the Eastern European front and involve Moscow in a common dialogue on the Chinese posture. It is no coincidence that Macron has long been insisting on the possibility of a re-edition of the Normandy format which includes Germany, France, Russia and Ukraine. Franco-German strategic autonomy within the wider European strategic autonomy, obviously.
And then there is Italy, where Russia has always enjoyed good support. At the political level, well beyond the glaring case of League. But also at the level commercial, where the complaints and requests of the business world and trade associations return cyclically to fully restart commercial relations with Moscow, underlining the heavy costs of sanctions. In the first half of 2021, meanwhile, Italian exports to Russia stood at 3.6 billion euros (+ 13.3% compared to the first half of 2020), while imports from Russia reached around 3.9 billion. (+35,7%).
But to decide for Europe, as is increasingly the case, there is someone else.