2024-07-27 14:16:23
However, not all of their predictions are as dire as one might expect, writes Time.
“The first eight or 10 months, basically all of 2025, will be very difficult,” said one senior Ukrainian official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss internal deliberations.
Trump would likely cut aid to Ukraine and force Zelensky to agree to a peace deal that would be heavily favorable to Russia. Like previous US presidents, D. Trump could also seek to restore relations with V. Putin at the beginning of his term.
“However, over time, he will understand that V. Putin cannot be trusted,” said the Ukrainian official.
More importantly, he adds, Trump will eventually understand “that Putin can’t care less about Trump and his agenda. That’s when we might start to see some upside for Trump. He will not want V. Putin to play with him.”
Among Ukraine’s political elite, such hopes for a second Trump term have been gaining momentum in recent months. In part, they are due to the tendency of V. Zelenskiy’s team to see opportunities and show self-confidence, no matter how bleak the situation.
But their view of Trump is also shaped by Kiev’s frustration with President Biden’s handling of the war.
On Sunday, after Mr. Biden dropped out of the race, Mr. Zelensky praised his leadership in defending Ukraine from Russia.
“Many strong decisions have been made in recent years that will be remembered as bold steps by President Biden at a difficult time,” he said in a statement.
But over the past two years, Mr. Zelensky and his allies have often complained that the United States, under Mr. Biden, was too slow, indecisive and too distracted to respond to the Russian invasion because of fears that Russia could escalate the situation.
A growing number of them believe that if Trump comes to power and ever decides to help Ukraine, US support will become more determined.
Among those making the prediction is former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson, who recently met Trump at the Republican National Convention.
“After speaking with Mr. Trump this week, I am more convinced than ever that he has the strength and courage to fix this, to save Ukraine, to bring peace — and to stop the devastating contagion of conflict,” Johnson wrote in an essay published in the Daily Mail on Friday. .
“Whatever some other Republicans have said about Ukraine in the past, I believe Trump understands the reality: A loss for Ukraine would be a huge loss for America.”
B. Johnson, whom V. Zelenskis in 2022 considered the closest ally in Europe at the beginning of the invasion, would not be the only one to present such arguments to D. Trump. Clear Republican majorities on Capitol Hill have voted in favor of multiple aid packages for Ukraine, most recently in April when Congress approved an additional $61 billion. dollar aid.
Many mainstream Republicans, including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, have strongly advocated helping Ukraine win the war.
Trump supported the more isolationist wing of his party in his presidential bid last week; Senator JD Vance was one of the fiercest opponents of American involvement in Ukraine.
But some in Kiev aren’t giving up hope that JD Vance, as vice president, could also be swayed the other way over time.
“He is like a pendulum,” said a senior Ukrainian official. “His position swings from one side to the other,” he added, noting that Vance has been one of Trump’s fiercest Republican critics in the past.
In trying to convince Trump and JD Vance, the Ukrainians are also counting on the help of their allies in Europe and the US military industrial complex, which will profit enormously from the continued production of weapons for Ukraine.
“They can explain [D. Trumpui – aut.past.], why it’s good for a lot of people in America, especially in red states, the senior official said. – It creates jobs. It supports the economy.”
In recent months, as Mr. Trump’s position in the polls has improved, Mr. Zelensky and his team have worked to strengthen ties with his allies in Congress and others close to the Trump campaign.
“We cannot take sides,” said a second senior Ukrainian official directly involved in the effort. “But we need to create more of a balance between them.”
One of Trump’s possible connections to the Ukrainians is Mike Pompeo, who served as CIA director and secretary of state during Trump’s first term.
Pompeo, who has said he would be open to a senior government post if Trump returns to the White House, has met with Andriy Yermak, an influential Zelenskyi administration chief, at least twice this year and once praised him as a “good friend.”
Last fall, Mr. Pompeo also became a board member of Kyivstar, a leading Ukrainian telecommunications company.
Still, given the uncertainty of the U.S. presidential race, some close allies of Mr. Zelenskiy would prefer to avoid direct ties to either campaign. The risk of supporting the wrong candidate is too high.
“No one knows what will happen,” said one Ukrainian official. “We just have to respect the institution and hope for the best.”
Even pagan „Time“ inf.
2024-07-27 14:16:23