2023-05-01 16:26:38
Who remembers Ukraine today? More than a year after the Russian invasion, the conflict is becoming more and more tiresome. The media is quieter about it, and more and more signals are beginning to suggest that the war will continue for a long time. In addition, there was a divergence of interests between Ukraine and the countries providing it with assistance regarding agricultural products. This is a dangerous moment, because the solidarity of the free world with the attacked country is being put to a serious test.
Tomasz Deptula
In recent months, the United States and European countries have provided Ukraine with a lot of modern weapons, but the front lines have not moved significantly. There is heavy fighting at the strategically insignificant Bakhmut, but neither side has the advantage to win the war and move on to the rebuilding stage.
There is much talk about the upcoming Kiev offensive, but there are also voices that the Ukrainian armed forces do not have enough striking power to win the war in their favour. Meanwhile, the sanctions imposed on Russia are beginning to “push” the countries involved in helping Ukraine more and more. Prices of energy commodities remain at a level that makes it difficult to fight inflation. This, in turn, becomes a plague that affects the quality of life of entire societies.
NO MIRACLE RESOLUTIONS
There are signs of conflict fatigue in the US. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley admitted that the West is unable to provide any specific weapon system that would allow Ukraine to win the war. Not only the promised M1 tanks or F16 planes that Kiev is asking for, or long-range missile systems, Patriot batteries or 155mm artillery – none of these weapons, according to the US military, is a guarantee of victory, despite the low morale of the Russian armed forces.
The head of the Pentagon, Lloyd Austin, announced the acceleration of the schedule for the delivery of Abrams tanks to Ukraine, which are to be delivered to Germany in the coming weeks, where training will begin. But the 60 promised Abrams will not create the critical mass to win the war. All reinforcements, according to American military planners, are not enough to carry out a successful offensive.
REPUBLIC SKEPTICISM
In Congress, a group of Republicans spoke up, which appealed to President Joe Biden not to provide Ukraine with “blank aid”. They accused the White House of lacking a clear diplomatic strategy to end the war.
The Republicans are clearly pushing for the transition to negotiations instead of arming the Ukrainians. This is another signal that the question of whether and how to help a struggling country raises more and more doubts.
The atmosphere was also not improved by the largest leak of American secret data in the last decade, including war in Ukraine. He showed, among others drastic differences between what the Allies promised the Ukrainians and what they actually delivered. For example, most of the tanks donated were not modern and technologically advanced machines, but revitalized tanks from the Soviet era.
The documents also show that Ukraine very quickly used up the ammunition and cruise missiles provided to it, used in anti-aircraft defense when repelling mass Russian bombings. What’s more, the demand for ammunition, especially 155 mm caliber, is so great in Ukraine that there is still a shortage of it, and it would take the West many years to increase production to a satisfactory level.
GRAIN CRISIS
The problems of military aid overlap with economic and political issues. Ukrainian grain and other agricultural products, which were only supposed to pass through Europe, flooded the markets of these countries. This led to lower prices in the markets and sparked protests from local farmers. This conflict of interest has become a political problem, e.g. in Poland, where the election campaign is already underway. Warsaw completely blocked the import of agricultural products from Ukraine into the territory of the Republic of Poland for several days. The heads of government of Poland, Bulgaria, Hungary, Slovakia and Romania called on the European Commission to intervene in the case of a massive influx of Ukrainian grain. They demanded the release of funds for subsidies for their own farmers, as well as for starting the export of Ukrainian agricultural surpluses to the countries of Africa and the Middle East, because European granaries need to be emptied before the upcoming harvest. The countries of Central and Eastern Europe even threatened to reintroduce customs duties and tariff quotas on imports of goods from Ukraine. This shows that triggering food trade flow mechanisms and mitigating the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on third countries is not as simple as originally assumed.
Regardless of how the conflict ends, it revealed the difficulties that Ukraine’s reconstruction and integration with the European Union, which firmly controls its own agricultural market, will bring in the future. The emergence of a new player in the united Europe – a large producer of cereals, industrial and oilseed crops, especially corn, rape and sunflower – may turn out to be more complicated than the integration of other Central and Eastern European countries.
The prospect of a prolonged war becomes an increasingly difficult experience. The pressure to introduce a ceasefire and start negotiations will therefore be stronger and stronger. This may require deep compromises from Ukraine, as its goal is to regain control over all territories occupied by Russia, including Crimea, which was still occupied in 2014. Even the most successful counter-offensive will not allow Ukraine to achieve this goal – the Russians simply control too much of their neighbor’s territory. Every offensive action also has its price – it involves losses in both men and equipment. This will require further assistance from the West, and these options are limited. In this context, the assurances of NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg and the US military command about solidarity with Ukraine and the need to oppose attempts to divide allies begin to sound like a cry in the wilderness.
We have reached a stage where Ukraine’s allies have shared with it everything that could be shared without compromising their own defense capabilities. The rest will have to be produced, which is not logistically simple. Will the free world be able to make further sacrifices for Ukraine? The future of this part of Europe where Poland is located may depend on the answer to this question.
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