“Third World War? Let’s not panic, but there are risks …”
The war in Ukraine has come to the fifteenth day. According to Russia, “some progress” has been made in the negotiations, but in the meantime the fear remains that the conflict could spread. To Affaritaliani.it, Marco di Liddosenior analyst Russia-Balcani del Center for International Studies (CeSI)analyzes the progress of the conflict.
What could be the next developments of the ongoing war?
“At the diplomatic level, the foundations for the resolution of the conflict are beginning to be laid. Time is everyone’s enemy: it is the enemy of the Ukrainians who must resist and who are beginning to have very serious problems with the supply of food, water and ammunition. It is the enemy of the Russians, who do not have a sufficiently strong economy to cope with the war effort and the weight of sanctions. Furthermore, time is the enemy of the EU, the United States and China, which are demanding an immediate resolution to stabilize the markets, because at this moment uncertainty is making everyone lose money. Precisely the wickedness of time towards all the players in the field could accelerate the will to reach a compromise ”.
Compromise on what grounds?
“The Ukrainians have opened a window. They said they are willing to talk about the status of Crimea, the status of the Donbass and their neutrality. Then they made openings on three of the four points requested by the Russians. At the moment, the demilitarization of the country remains excluded. From a diplomatic point of view, those three openings are a strong message. There is a willingness to solve it relatively quickly “
How short?
“It could be two weeks, it could be a month. But it is important that everyone wants to go in this direction. Obviously it will be necessary to see what the contents of the agreement will be. The key is to find a compromise that is not humiliating for anyone. Nobody should lose face and nobody should sacrifice too much. In this context, for the Russians to see the recognition of Donbass and Crimea could be something that can be spent on the domestic front. As well as the non-belonging of Ukraine to NATO. It turns out that Putin could claim at home not to tell the population that the operation was a total disaster. For Ukraine, the renunciations of Donbass, Crimea and NATO should be linked to other guarantees, such as the start of the process of entry into the European Union “
Could this Putin accept it?
“Yes, he could accept it. Putin realized that the military operation did not produce the desired results. He realized the cost of the European response. And so he has to adapt his initial plan, which was to go get all of Ukraine. He understood that this plan can no longer be implemented because it is the result of a wrong calculation and therefore he had to recalculate everything. Now Putin’s race is to lose more than to win “
In your opinion, therefore, are the alarms relating to a possible use of atomic weapons exaggerated?
“No, they are not exaggerated. A small gap has opened between yesterday and today, but the situation of tension continues to be very high. The Russians have compiled a list of countries they consider hostile. Whoever sent arms to Ukraine and imposed sanctions on Russia is in fact in a position of co-belligerence, whether they like it or not. NATO and European countries are working to ensure that the conditions for an accident are not created. This is why the refusal of the no fly zone and other more direct measures, because we do not want to go and directly engage the Russian army so as not to create a situation that could get out of hand. However, the tension and risk factors are still very high, also because we are faced with a Russian leadership that is gambling everything and that, if it emerges defeated from this war to no avail, could radicalize its positions “
So a large-scale conflict cannot be ruled out …
“I’ve read headlines about World War III, I don’t like to use these words because they create panic. I prefer to say that we cannot yet rule out a priori that the conflict will spread, because the crisis factors remain unchanged. So there is a risk of an extension of the conflict. From here to talk of nuclear war we pass, because it is not that if the conflict is unleashed it means that the atomic weapon is used immediately, there are previous steps. There is a risk that the conflict will spread, become gangrenous and involve other actors as well. We must understand that we are in a very delicate phase, it is as if we were handling corrosive, explosive components in a chemical laboratory, we must be extremely cautious “.