2023-12-24 10:13:00
For US officials, Putin had already attempted to negotiate a ceasefire a year earlier, in the fall of 2022. His intentions, previously unknown, emerged after Ukraine defeated the Russian army in the northeast. Then Putin said that he was satisfied with the territories conquered by Russia and was ready for a truce, the interlocutors of the publication reported.
At least since September, Western officials have received new signals that Putin is interested in a ceasefire. The signals come through several channels, including through foreign governments that have ties to both the United States and Russia.
“There is no evidence – writes the ‘New York Times’ – that Ukrainian leaders, who have pledged to reconquer all their territory, could accept such an agreement. The former Russian officials add that Putin may change his mind again if Russian forces gain momentum.”
“Putin is really willing to stop at the current positions,” one former senior Russian official told the New York Times, relaying a message he believes the Kremlin is silently sending. The former official added: “He is not willing to retreat one meter.” Responding to written questions after declining an interview request, Putin’s spokesman, Dmitri Peskov said in a voice message that “conceptually, these theses you are presenting are not correct.”
Asked whether Russia was ready for a ceasefire on the current battle lines, he pointed to the President’s recent comments. Putin said this month that Russia’s war aims have not changed. Sergei Shoigu, Russia’s defense minister, made clear in a private meeting earlier this year that despite his failures, Putin is determined to keep fighting.
According to the senior international official present, Shoigu provided statistics showing Russia’s advantage in tanks and warplanes and his plans to increase defense production. He boasted that Russia could mobilize up to 25 million men, the official recalled. “For Putin, it’s about Russia versus the United States and the West,” the official said after the meeting. “Putin cannot afford to back down.”
Some analysts – continues the NYT – argue that Putin is benefiting from a long war and that he wants to delay any negotiations until a possible return to office of former president Donald J. Trump, the favorite for the Republican presidential nomination in 2024. Among the many likely flashpoints is Putin’s determination to keep Ukraine out of NATO.
But one of the former Russian officials said that a disagreement on this point would not be a problem for Putin, because the alliance is not expected to admit Ukraine in the near future. However, senior American officials have said they don’t believe any senior Ukrainian politician could agree at this time to a deal that leaves so much Ukrainian territory to Russia.
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