Ukraine regains the initiative against the Russian army

by time news

Like an air of cold sweats on the pro-Russian Telegram channels. Since September 7, well-watched Russian-speaking channels on the encrypted messaging app have been reporting worried reports about a new offensive launched by Ukraine in the Kharkiv sector in the northeast of the country, reporting breakthroughs from the front for more than twenty kilometres. “The Ukrainian army has completely surpassed the command of certain sectors in the operational art”, the Starche Eddy chain was strangled on Wednesday September 7, followed by 505,000 people. “The situation is difficult, but it could have been catastrophic this morning”, tried to reassure the Kotsnews channel on Thursday, September 8, followed by 532,000 people.

If the offensive surprises pro-Russian bloggers so much, it is because it threatens to cut off a vital supply route linking Russia to the city of Izium and, from there, to a good part of the Russian force in the Donbass. But it is above all the totally unexpected aspect of the offensive which took the Russian forces back and allowed kyiv to regain control of at least 20 localities, according to a spokesman for the Ukrainian army. It must be said that the attention was elsewhere: on the southern region of Kherson, where Ukraine launched a counter-offensive on August 29 to chase Russian soldiers from the eastern bank of the Dnieper River.

“One of the great strategic decisions of the war”

Announced a long time ago by the kyiv authorities, it had led Russia to redeploy troops there from other sections of the front. “The Ukrainian choice to attract Russian forces to Kherson is clearly one of the great strategic decisions of the war, Phillips O’Brien, professor of strategic studies at Stanford University, commented on Twitter on Wednesday. He has drawn some of the best Russian units to Kherson, where they cannot be supplied and suffer methodical attrition. And it pushed the Russians to thin their line of defense in the Kharkiv region. »

These difficulties in supplying the Russian forces in the Kherson region are linked to the geographical situation. The Ukrainians have long prepared their counter-offensive by bombarding Russian command centers, logistics nodes and ammunition stocks in the Kherson region since the end of July, using for this purpose the infernal precision of the American Himars multiple rocket launchers delivered during summer. Above all, these strikes made it possible to disable the two bridges over the great Dnieper river, which linked the Russian rear to the forces stationed on the western bank, estimated at around 20,000 soldiers.

“The Russians will not be able to rely solely on floating bridges constantly under threat of fire to supply their troops north of the river, explain to The cross military analyst Konrad Muzyka. This logistical problem will crucially limit Russian operations and their ability to respond to Ukrainian attacks. » This does not mean that the fight will be easy or fast. Expecting an offensive, the Russians took the time to fortify their positions in the Kherson region, to scatter minefields, and to trap their positions in case of retreat.

Western Aid Coordination

“I don’t think the Ukrainians are currently in a position to push the Russians back beyond the Dnieper, because they need men and heavy equipment for that, which I’m not sure they currently have” , adds Konrad Muzyka. According to several analysts, the Ukrainian army would rather bet on the fact that the Russian positions are becoming more and more untenable, pushing them in the medium term to retreat south of the river.

This resumption of the initiative by kyiv nevertheless marks a turning point, after a painful start to the summer for the Ukrainian army, which suffered heavy human losses defending the Donbass under the crushing fire of Russian artillery. . Deliveries of Western arms and ammunition have however enabled Ukraine to rebalance the balance of power, and to prepare these counter-offensives.

The achievements on the Kharkiv and Kherson fronts come at an important time, as Ukraine’s partner nations gathered around US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Thursday (September 8) at the base in Ramstein, Germany. , to coordinate military aid to Ukraine. Saluting the “manifest success” Western efforts on the battlefield, the head of the Pentagon announced a new envelope of 675 million dollars of assistance for the army of kyiv before even the beginning of the meeting.

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