Ukraine-Russia, Putin raises the intensity of the economic war on wheat

2023-07-18 19:00:49

It happened several times in the seventeen months of war between Russia and Ukraine. When the military conflict goes through delicate phases, Putin chooses to raise the stakes on an economic level, to put pressure on the international alliance that supports Kiev. First with gas and oil, now with grain. The Kremlin’s design envisages a relatively simple scheme: making sure that the price paid by the rest of the world for war is as high as possible is the best way to weaken the opposing front, also by leveraging public opinion.

It is no coincidence that the decision not to extend the agreement on wheat, which allows the passage of the essential goods to guarantee the needs of sensitive areas, is accompanied by a significant effort in terms of propaganda. Moscow is quick to announce that it is ready for a free replacement of Ukrainian wheat for countries that need it, in response to the factual accusation coming from Kiev and Western countries: to starve the world and bomb civilians to maximize the consequences on the humanitarian level it is a precise strategy of Russia, which is in difficulty on the military level.

The recriminations of the parties on compliance with the agreement and on the reciprocal guarantees repeatedly disregarded also come into play in the rebound of responsibilities. Without forgetting that the wheat game is being played out in the broader framework of Western sanctions, which continue to weaken the Russian productive fabric and on the by now evident consequences of a progressive attrition of the fundamentals of the Moscow economy, as demonstrated by the now unstoppable collapse of the quotation of the ruble.

In Putin’s plans, the war in Ukraine was first supposed to be a blitzkrieg. Then turning off the gas taps should have forced Europe to choose between a fatal energy crisis and support for Kiev. However, both strategies proved inconclusive or, at least, much less effective than hoped. Now the new blackmail on wheat serves to up the ante. The coming weeks will tell if we are facing a player’s bluff on his last bet or if Putin still has the cards to win his dirty game of poker. (By Fabio Insenga)