The Ukrainian leadership negotiates with the attackers, while its cities are bombed, threatened with being “razed if they don’t surrender” (as in the days of Rome and Carthage); the Russian commandos are looking for the same leadership they are dealing with, to assassinate it. The West exalts the Ukrainians and itself for the “harsh” sanctions against Russia, for her “compactness”. In a few days, President Zelensky, his wife and many others will be dead, some cities leveled, people starving and deprived of liberty. A sudden silence will reign over Ukraine, shattered only by the humiliations of Putin’s puppet.
Given the prospects, the Western ruling classes did not offer a good show yesterday. The European Parliament has staged a contest of rhetoric among the political leaders, while Zelensky in a sweater, his face dull from sleep, in connection from Kiev asked: “What do you actually intend to do to help us?”. The enthusiasm and the jubilation were even greater in the US Congress, where Joe Biden, in his State of the Union speech, gave birth to the mouse of closing the American skies to Russian planes. “Too little too late”, they say over there.
The West will not fire a shot until Putin attacks the Baltics or other territories where the NATO alliance is in force. Putin has taken note of it and is preparing to invade Moldova (Lukashenko says so). At that point the outrage of the West will be maximum. Even the hypocrisy of those who put victims and aggressors on the same level: “But also Caesar with the Gauls …”, yes, I know. What can an embarrassed West, caught between hypocrisy and nuclear drift, do? We have chosen to defend ourselves with economic warfare. But we have not calibrated the “unprecedented” sanctions on the desired result, but on silencing our consciences as right-thinking ones. It is true, however, that we are only now discovering that war has been prepared for two and a half years (including foreign exchange reserves), that Ukraine is only being hit because it sympathizes with the lifestyle and institutions of the West, and it’s just the first goal.
The West is very fortunate to have met a nation fighting for him. Not only does it inflict casualties on the “enemy”; it not only lays bare its true logics. Zelensky by holding the Ukrainian people together in the darkest hour has awakened Europe and changed it in a few days, forever. For this he has become the number one target of the Russians: he is today the charismatic and moral leader of the West. We cannot afford to lose him, nor can he save himself by abandoning his people: it would no longer be him.
Sanctions can harm the Russian economy in the long run, but they are not enough to save Ukraine; nor to stop Putin’s war with Hitler’s 1935-38 strategy. Putin has already accounted for losses, but his personal cost-benefit calculator considers even much higher losses to be acceptable. He also calculated that the Russian elite can bear these losses and some more without his regime being destabilized.
The only way out for the West, wanting to avoid both world war and outright humiliation, is to increase economic sanctions to the point where the costs, in the logic of the Russians, outweigh the benefits. Wanting to do it, we might as well do it before Ukraine falls. It is essentially done by reducing the flow of gas to Europe (and of the western currency to Russia) from the current 100% immediately to 70% and at the same time letting further reductions be leaked, up to 0% within 12 months (it cannot be done with oil because it is a fungible good). Would our economies hold up? Yes (study here). Should we make sacrifices, ration the gas? Absolutely yes.
Who would make the most sacrifices? Italy and Germany (the weaker classes are already suffering from inflation). We would therefore need a European coordination and a domestic one to redistribute costs. Is it worth it? Yes. For our dignity today in the face of Ukraine on fire. For our safety and well-being of tomorrow. Yes, because the probability of stopping Putin without firing a shot would be high.
Europe has always boasted of being peaceful, of being able to manage international tensions with the soft power. It’s time to prove it. Right now. But the politicians will do what public opinion and polls direct. So it depends on us. Solidarity with the victims of this war, the alleged defense of democratic values, of peace, are the fruit of superficial and changing emotions, or are we determined? If we are not, we will find many excuses to turn the other way: where we will find a million refugees. The question is all here.