Ukrainian forces regained the battlefield initiative across several sectors in early 2026, virtually wiping out Russia’s net territorial gains since March, according to assessments from military analysts. The shifting front lines come as diplomatic efforts stall and intensive strikes target energy and transport infrastructure on both sides.
Territorial Shifts and Counteroffensive Gains Along the Front
For the first time in at least two years, Russian forces appear to have lost territory in Ukraine, according to battlefield experts and open-source researchers, as Ukrainian forces eke out small battlefield gains and push back Russian troops. The findings, reported by DeepState, an open-source group with ties to the Ukrainian military, and Black Bird Group, a Finnish research organization, do not appear to signal a wholesale turning of the tides in the Ukraine war, now in its fifth year since Russia’s full-scale invasion. Ukrainian forces have regained the battlefield initiative in 2026, virtually erasing Russia’s net territorial gains since March and launching counteroffensive operations across several strategically important sectors, according to the Institute for the Study of War. The assessment marks a significant shift in the dynamics of the war. ISW analysts said Ukrainian forces had, for the first time since the August 2024 Kursk offensive, demonstrated an ability to counter Russia’s battlefield initiative consistently during late 2025 and throughout 2026. Since March, Ukrainian forces have virtually eliminated
Russia’s net territorial gains while conducting counteroffensive operations around Kupiansk, Oleksandrivka and Lyman.
Ukraine’s commander-in-chief, General Oleksandr Syrskiy, tried to emphasize this point on March 2. In February 2026, for the first time since the Kursk offensive operation, the Ukraine's Defense Forces restored control over more territory than the enemy could capture,
he said in a Facebook post. The operations have disrupted several Russian plans and forced Moscow’s forces to devote increasing resources to defending positions they had previously captured. In the Dnipropetrovsk direction, Ukrainian counteroffensives halted Russian attempts to penetrate the region. Around Kupiansk, Ukrainian forces retook positions in the city and surrounding areas and subsequently repelled Russian efforts to regain them. The fighting around Lyman has also produced a potentially significant strategic shift. Ukrainian operations destroyed a Russian salient that had threatened the northern flank of Sloviansk and the wider Donetsk defensive belt. The developments suggest that Russia’s numerical and material advantages have not translated into sustained territorial momentum, even as Moscow continues to commit substantial forces to offensive operations. The battlefield remains contested, however, and ISW identified areas where Russian forces continue to make progress. Russian troops have achieved limited but strategically important gains in and around Kostiantynivka, while also advancing east of Sloviansk and Kramatorsk. But those advances have come at a high operational cost.
Strikes Target Transport and Energy Infrastructure
As ground skirmishes shift, Nato chief Mark Rutte commented on attacks. The strike on a train in Ukraine shows how desperate Russian President Vladimir Putin has become, Nato Secretary-General Mark Rutte said on Monday. Russia is growing increasingly reckless as it continues its terrible war against Ukraine,
he also said. European leaders were meeting Monday to discuss growing competition in the Arctic, where global warming is opening new shipping routes, governments are vying for vast natural resources and a Russian military buildup is heightening security concerns. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen were among leaders expected for the European Arctic Summit in Rovaniemi, Finland, a city perhaps best known for its Santa Claus village. The two-day gathering that began Sunday comes on the heels of a Norwegian seizure of a Russian vessel earlier this month in the remote Arctic archipelago of Svalbard at the request of Ukraine, drawing the condemnation of Russian President Vladimir Putin. The Kremlin said on Monday that an export ban on diesel should help boost the domestic market in Russia and blamed instability in the Middle East for worsening global energy markets.
Diplomatic Stagnation and Diplomatic Maneuvers
Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov suggests Moscow is keen for the US – which has shown support for Russia’s agenda – to revive its involvement in negotiations. Moscow is ready to listen to new ideas for ending the war in Ukraine, provided they align with President Vladimir Putin’s position, a senior Russian diplomat has said. Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov said in an interview published by News.ru on Friday that Russia is open to proposals that are in line with realities on the ground
. Ryabkov’s words suggest that Moscow may be seeking to revive the Trump administration’s support for its agenda. Moscow previously welcomed the United States’ demonstrating an understanding of Russia’s position
, but Washington has been distracted from mediation efforts amid its war on Iran.
The Russian Federation is ready to listen to any reasonable proposals and ideas that are in line with the goals set by the Russian president and meet the ‘realities on the ground’,
Ryabkov said. At this stage, it is more important to what extent Washington is able to influence the decisions of the Kyiv regime and its European sponsors, who still dream of a ‘strategic defeat’ of Russia,
he added. Putin has previously demanded that before agreeing to a ceasefire in the war he launched in February 2022, Ukraine must hand over the whole of the eastern Donbas region, demilitarise, and pledge it will not seek to join NATO. Several rounds of US-brokered negotiations at the start of the year failed to reach a settlement. Further talks slated for early March were cancelled as the US launched its war on Iran alongside Israel. The meetings followed the circulation of a 28-point, Washington-generated peace plan last November that raised ire for its capitulations to Russian demands. US special envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff led the negotiations between Moscow and Kyiv earlier this year.
Mobilization Pressures and Operational Costs
India hosted the Brics summit at a geopolitically divisive moment in the world. Two Brics members – Iran and Russia – are embroiled in major wars while several of their allies have faced attacks, instability, and serious disruption as a result of the conflicts. But the contradictions at the heart of Brics were laid bare in Delhi this weekend.
But they do highlight a growing consensus that Russia’s war has ground to a near stalemate, with Moscow unable to decisively achieve its goals and Kyiv unable to push out Russia’s invading forces. Russia appears to still have a slight upper hand across most of the 1,100-kilometer front line. In Pokrovsk, for example, Russian forces have occupied the southern Donbas city almost entirely after a grueling, yearlong campaign. The most intense combat is currently concentrated on the city’s northern edges. Ukraine has yet to acknowledge the loss of the city. But the Russian gains have also been incremental: By some estimates, Russian forces are advancing at a pace measured in just meters, on par with the most grueling trench warfare during World War I. For their part, Ukrainian forces are exhausted, outmanned, and in many places outgunned. Porous defenses in some parts of the front line have given Russian troops the opportunity to race past pockets of Ukrainian positions, using motorcycles or all-terrain vehicles — often at great toll. But Kyiv has still managed to both inflict near-debilitating casualties and now, even recapture territory.