The massive Russian strikes on Ukraine have renewed the Ukrainian government’s calls for its allies to provide it with new air defense systems. Three countries are now at the forefront of providing the Ukrainian army with better defenses against Russian cruise and ballistic missiles, as well as Iranian-made drones.
According to the German Ministry of Defense, the first of four Iris-T air defense systems promised by Germany at the beginning of the summer should arrive within ” next days “. The United States is expected to deliver two batteries of Norwegian-made Nasam surface-to-air missiles in the coming weeks. The other six, announced at the end of August by the Pentagon, will not be available before 2023. Finally, Spain must transfer six Spada Aspide anti-aircraft missile systems, equipment developed in cooperation by Switzerland and Italy.
Eight ground-to-air system batteries
Will France join this trio as part of the “new provisions » taken by Emmanuel Macron “to militarily support Ukraine» ? French capacities in this area exist, even if they are limited. The French army has only eight batteries of the medium-range land-based surface-to-air system (SAMP-T) Mamba, an air defense system manufactured by Thales and MBDA, whose range can reach 100 kilometers. One of them was deployed in Romania as part of French participation in strengthening NATO’s posture on the eastern flank of Europe. Others are assigned to the protection of military nuclear sites. “It is not the most appropriate system in relation to the threat, says Pierre Grasser, associate researcher at the Sirice laboratory (Sorbonne University). On the other hand, France could provide Crotale NG short-range surface-to-air missiles and surveillance radars, which are easier to produce and deliver. »
Evolution of the Russian threat
For this expert, the evolution of the Russian threat in Ukraine, combined with the insufficiency of Western stocks and the human resources to use them, explains the delay in the ignition of Western countries. «At the start of the conflict, adds Pierre Grasser, Ukraine managed to protect itself with its Soviet-made SA-11 and S-300 batteries. Russian aircraft stopped flying over Ukrainian territory in mid-March, and Russian missiles were still hitting the same places and in limited numbers. » The equation changed this summer, with an increasing reliance by Russian forces on missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian infrastructure and cities. NATO defense ministers will discuss the issue on Wednesday, October 12, in Brussels during a meeting of the contact group on Ukraine and a working dinner, in the presence of Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiï Reznikov.
France in 13th place
The latest ranking from the Kiel Institute for the World Economy places France 13e rank for military aid to Ukraine, far behind the United States, the United Kingdom and Poland. So far, France has provided the Ukrainians with 18 Caesar guns with thousands of shells, as well as a few dozen Milan anti-tank missiles and about fifteen TRF1 towed guns. Negotiations are underway to transfer six additional Caesar guns to Ukraine, taken from an order for Denmark.
Accused of not doing enough, Paris highlights the quality of the material provided. Emmanuel Macron announced, Friday, October 7, the creation of a special fund of 100 million euros for purchases by kyiv of“defensive weapons” with the French defense industry. This fund is in addition to some $230 million that France has committed to military aid.
Political choice
«It is a real political choice, stresses François Heisbourg, adviser for Europe at the International Institute for Strategic Studies. There are those who help Ukraine more than others. To be an actor and to weigh, it is better to be present. What does France weigh with 2% of the joint effort of EU countries and NATO to provide Ukraine with the means of its defense against the Russian invasion? »