Title: War in Ukraine at Critical Point as Progress of Counter-Offensive Remains Slow
Subtitle: Ukraine’s future and Europe’s security at stake as Russian forces dig in
The war in Ukraine has reached a critical point, with the country’s future and the security of Europe hanging in the balance. After 18 months of defensive measures, Ukraine has taken the offensive this summer with the help of Western military equipment. However, two months into the counter-offensive, the progress of Ukrainian troops remains slow.
A recent analysis of video footage and consultations with experts, conducted by BBC Verify, reveals that not much has changed in eastern and southern Ukraine since the counter-offensive began. Russia still occupies nearly one-fifth of the country, including the cities of Donetsk and Mariupol. Russian forces remain well dug in and heavily fortified.
Despite the lack of significant gains, Ukraine has managed to retake the village of Staromaiorske in the Donetsk region. Video evidence verified by the BBC supports this claim. Additionally, small areas have been regained in the Bakhmut and Zaporizhzhia regions, where intense fighting has taken place.
The Zaporizhzhia region holds key strategic importance for Ukraine, as a push through this territory to the Sea of Azov would disrupt Russia’s supply routes and isolate their forces in Russian-annexed Crimea.
However, progress has been hindered by the extensive fortifications built by Russia. Triple layers of trenches, bunkers, tank-traps, and ditches filled with landmines present significant obstacles to Ukrainian advancement. Marina Miron, a defense expert at King’s College London, suggests that Ukraine’s ambitions to retake Crimea may not be realized anytime soon.
Russian defensive tactics have become increasingly effective, utilizing anti-tank mines, trenches rigged with explosives, and the deployment of attack helicopters to target Ukrainian armored vehicles. The Russian military’s innovation has proven to be a challenge for Ukrainian forces.
Although Ukraine has developed newly-formed armored brigades and acquired better equipment, including missiles with a range of over 150 miles, it faces a race against time. The rainy season, expected to arrive in autumn, will complicate advances with the muddy roads. Moreover, the US presidential election cycle beginning in the spring raises concerns about the continuity of US and NATO support if Ukraine fails to demonstrate significant gains on the battlefield.
As Ukraine fights for its future, Russia seeks to maintain control over the territories it has illegally seized. The clock is ticking for Ukraine, making the need for progress increasingly urgent.
Additional reporting by Benedict Garman, Thomas Spencer, Tural Ahmedzade and Filipa Silverio.