STORY – Putin absent, the China-United States opposition will weigh on this meeting.
Special Envoy to Bali
Vladimir Putin will not tread the beach in Bali, but his shadow hangs over the G20 summit. The Russian president announced his absence from the gathering of the leaders of the twenty largest economies on the planet which opens this Tuesday in Indonesia, obscured by the divisions caused by the invasion of Ukraine, between Westerners hostile to Moscow, and countries emerging countries pleading for appeasement, all under the threat of a global recession.
As his army retreated to Kherson, the Kremlin master dodged a possible first meeting since the start of the war with US President Joe Biden, as well as key European leaders from Emmanuel Macron to British Prime Minister, Rishi Sunak, saying “scheduling difficulties.
“Look into each other’s eyes”
“His absence signals an isolation of Russia“, wants to believe the Elysée, while many countries of the South keep their distance from the confrontation between the West and Moscow. The pugnacious Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov, inconvenienced on his arrival in Indonesia, represents him with the mission of preventing “a politicization of the G20“, while the Ukrainian President, Volodymyr Zelensky, should intervene by video during this summit stretching until Wednesday.
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An armada of charcoal-grey military vessels has taken up position off the Nusa Dua peninsula, south of Bali, transformed into an entrenched camp to host the first physical gathering of leaders of major world powers since the pandemic and the invasion of the ‘Ukraine. Beneath the coconut palms and wooded frames of the luxurious Apurva Kempinski Hotel, the nations weighing together 80% of the world’s GDP will try to send a message of stability to the markets, shaken by geopolitical storms.
Even Chinese President Xi Jinping is making his comeback on the international scene, marked by a highly anticipated first meeting with Joe Biden on Monday, amid escalating Sino-American tensions. “This summit is crucial because there hasn’t been an in-person exchange for too long», judge Kishore Mahbubani, former Singaporean ambassador, who has the ear of Joko Widodo, the president of Indonesia, host of the G20. It will be an opportunity tolook into each other’s eyes“warned Charles Michel, the President of the Council of the EU, who displays his determination with regard to Beijing and other emerging capitals refusing to condemn the Russian invasion. “The United States must not hold the summit hostage“warned the Global Timesthe daily affiliated with the Chinese Communist Party, which denounces the American desire to raise the Ukrainian question at the G20.
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Indonesia, the fourth most populous country on the planet, is under great pressure to prevent an open confrontation at a summit that looks like a test for multilateral cooperation and globalization, undermined by the antagonism between the West and Moscow, supported by its ally Beijing. Even keeping the traditional family photo of the leaders is becoming uncertain, and the delivery of a final joint press release a challenge. “Joko Widodo fears the summit will turn into a fistfight, but if they manage to talk to each other, it will be a big success for Indonesia“Said Chong Jian Ian, researcher at the National University of Singapore (NUS).
Putin’s Absence
Sixty-seven years after the Bandung conference, which brought together a “Third World” defying the logic ofblocsAt a time of decolonization, the distant successor of President Sukarno is once again pleading for non-alignment, speaking out for emerging countries, which are dismissing Russia and the West back to back, in the name of global economic recovery. . “The world must not descend into a new cold war“, told the Figaro “Jokowi”, as the street nicknames him. A formula that resonates in the capitals of the South, from New Delhi to Brasilia, which will take over the presidency of the G20 next year. But the Indonesian president is aware that the summit will have to deliver concrete results, under penalty of accentuating the climate of planetary uncertainty.
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If the absence of Vladimir Putin reduces the risk of a skid under the flashes of the photographers, the battle rages behind the scenes, between Western countries pleading for a firm line on Ukraine and others who wish to avoid this hot topic. , at the instigation of Beijing and Moscow, to focus on economic issues, the original raison d’être of the G20. “A call for de-escalation is crucial. There is no economic cooperation without political sovereignty“replied a source at the Élysée, while Emmanuel Macron dined with several leaders of southern countries on Monday evening, including Macky Sall from Senegal or Paul Kagame from Rwanda.
As Russia loses ground on the battlefield, Europeans hope the Bali reunion will open the door to future negotiations. With the first urgency, the renewal of the agreement on the export of Ukrainian cereals whose expiry is approaching. A race against time to prevent a food crisis in the South, and curb inflation, another hot topic with energy, on the agenda of discussions under the coconut palms of Bali.