2024-01-31 07:22:51
by Lorenzo Cremonesi
Cities across the border are in the spotlight. Kiev intelligence chief: Moscow’s offensive will end in spring
FROM OUR CORRESPONDENT
KHARKIV — For at least forty times from noon to ten in the evening the alarm sirens rang throughout the city. They continued into the night. And the residents of Kharkiv heard both the Russian bombs and the Ukrainian anti-aircraft fire. Those who were afraid were already displaced. We who remain have to live with the attacks, says Valery, a tank officer met while taking refuge in the metro in front of the municipality. The news is that now even the Russians have to take cover. Our drones hit their cities. And Putin will have to explain to his people why he is unable to defend her, he adds.
With a few sentences the soldier points out a reality that has been significantly obscured by the prevailing narrative in the West, according to which, since the failure of the summer counter-offensive, the Ukrainians have lost the initiative and are now destined for defeat, if the allies do not intervene soon with new weapons and financing. But the facts on the ground are at least more complex. The south-east front has been semi-paralyzed for months and the Ukrainian drones are performing miracles. If the sirens don’t stop sounding in Kharkiv, the same now happens every day in Belgorod, the Russian barracks city located about fifty kilometers further north. Ukrainian attacks on Crimea are repeated regularly. They did it the other night too. Moscow claims to have shot down 21 drones. Three weeks ago, drones also knocked out a Russian oil terminal in the Baltic.
The story of the Ilyushin-76 transport plane shot down by the Ukrainians on January 25, which according to Moscow was carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war, also reveals the Kremlin’s nervousness. Kiev repeats that it has not received any evidence of its deaths: however it is clear that its missiles cause serious difficulties for enemy air traffic. Our marine drones forced the Russian Black Sea fleet to abandon their stopovers in Crimea and take refuge in their base in Novorossiysk, the governor of Odessa, Oleh Kiper, told us to explain the success of their maritime grain corridor.
How much will all this play in the Russian elections in March? Probably not much, given the dictatorial nature of the regime. It remains true that the price of war weighs heavily even where public opinions are muzzled. The head of the CIA, William Burns, writes that Putin’s power is slowly eroding. The Russian winter offensive is still stinging, but we estimate it is destined to end in early spring, says the head of Ukrainian intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov.
Words which in Kiev are also read as a possible confirmation of his appointment as the next Chief of Staff in place of the popular Valeriy Zaluzhny. President Zelensky has long wanted a change in military leaders and on Monday he would have proposed a role as advisor to Zaluzhny, but he is trying to avoid destabilizing his government. Meanwhile, the 27 countries of the European Union are organizing themselves for the summit on Thursday in Brussels aimed at voting on the 50 billion euros in aid to Kiev, despite the difficulties posed by the Hungarian Prime Minister Orbn. We will find a solution, with or without Orbn, declares Polish Prime Minister Tusk. For President Macron, Europe must organize itself to avoid any impact if Washington were to reduce support for Ukraine.
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January 31, 2024 (modified January 31, 2024 | 08:22)
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