2023-11-19 11:48:45
Collage: Tochka.by
What will happen to Belarusian GDP in 2024?
Not long ago, the Belarusian authorities approved forecast development parameters for 2024. GDP growth next year is planned at 3.8%.
The Belarusian economy grew by exactly the same figure in January-October of this year. But it is worth remembering that last year it fell much more, going into negative territory by 4.7%.
UDF asked the expert: how does he assess the government’s forecast for 2024?
“There are practically no investments in Belarus, it is on a starvation diet”
Entrepreneur Nikolai Lysenkov, in a comment to UDF, called the government’s forecast quite realistic.
Photo: gazetaby.com
“3% is a small increase, taking into account the fact that the domestic market has not narrowed too much, and the authorities have found workarounds for exports. Data on paper means little: the question is where the manufactured products will go – for export or to warehouses. The Belarusian economy under normal conditions could grow by 10% per year,” Lysenkov said.
He added:
“The government, when making a forecast, does not itself know whether it will come true or not. Let’s say that Poland and Lithuania close their borders with Belarus tomorrow – GDP will immediately decrease, because This includes transport services. Much depends on external factors, on how the regime behaves.”
Why does Lysenkov believe that under normal conditions the Belarusian economy could grow by 10% per year?
“There are practically no investments coming into Belarus; it is on a starvation diet. Although its economy still has potential. With a change of power, under appropriate conditions, the volume of GDP could be doubled – in a decade, or even in 5-7 years. But investors are needed, and for obvious reasons they are now afraid to invest in the country: because of sanctions and the behavior of the regime, which can easily take away business – there have already been many examples,” says Lysenkov.
In his opinion, Lukashenko’s regime no longer pays much attention to the need to increase the standard of living of Belarusians.
“The main task is to retain power, so the funds are not used for domestic investments, but for the maintenance and growth of law enforcement agencies,” the entrepreneur noted.
What forecasts do international institutions give about Belarus’ GDP for 2024?
So, the Belarusian authorities hope for economic growth next year by 3.8%. However, the forecasts of international organizations are not at all so optimistic.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF), in its October report on the state of the world economy, increased its estimate of Belarus’ GDP growth in 2024 from 1.2% (this figure was announced in the spring) to only 1.3%.
According to World Bank experts, GDP growth next year will be only 0.8% (and 0.7% in 2025). Their explanation:
“With the exception of sectors linked to Russian exports (oil, fertilizers and machinery), investment is forecast to slow as the economy remains isolated. Against this background, with limited growth potential, the economy may follow a growth trajectory close to zero.”
The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) expects Belarus’ GDP to grow by 1.1% in 2024. Its analysts believe that in the medium term, business activity in the country will be hampered by increased uncertainty and difficulties in the supply of intermediate and investment products, as well as limited access to new technologies.
The BEROC research center predicts the growth of the Belarusian economy in 2024 by 1.6% – “even if the adjusted supply chains and the political course for comprehensive support of economic activity are maintained.” They believe that stimulating economic policies will lead to the actualization of the problem of high inflation.
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