2024-09-14 06:00:05
The preparation of the budget for 2025 is pending the establishment of the new government of Michel Barnier, who will have the task of receiving the contract of the ministers who resigned, before sending the bill to Parliament. The test circuit for this important issue is, however, several weeks behind the normal schedule, which will require the High Commission of Public Finances to give its opinion in mid-September.
What is involved in preparing the 2025 budget?
The Government must present to Parliament a budget that must be approved before the end of the year to allow the State and administrations to work from January 1. In the absence of a budget voted and published on December 31, and therefore the allocated resources, government administrations will not be able to pay government officials, pay state suppliers, invoices, etc. this situation has not arisen in the history of the Fifth Republic.
Next to this important aspect for the work of the State, François Ecalle, the founder of Fipeco, An information site on public finances, a series of economic issues, which are related to “Economics of Public Finance”. Consistency with the objectives of the stability system, compliance with the budget rules set by the European Union or even the concern of the financial markets about the national debt are all elements that the government must integrate. It is clear that as well “The new European budget rules, we should try to restore our public accounts, either by reducing our spending or by increasing taxes, of the order of fifteen billion per year, for five years to seven”. The complex equation is having the budget adopted by the National Assembly and the Senate while it is known “credit our lenders and our European partners”.
What is the regulatory framework to be respected?
The preparation of the budget is part of the preparation process that begins in the spring. There Organic law related to financial laws (LOLF, which is the equivalent of the “Tax Law” of the State) provides that the government presents to the legislators, before July 15, the first estimate of the expenses incurred for the next year.
Members of parliament have a maximum period of seventy days to examine, modify and vote on the matter, which can be submitted to the Constitutional Council after referral to the group of representatives or committees to assess the compliance of the measures of PLF with the Constitution.
The law must be promulgated and published Official journal no later than December 31 so that credits can be made from January 1.
What are the possible scenarios this year?
Due to the dissolution of the National Assembly and then the resignation of the Attal government on July 16, the strategic plan was already damaged. The document containing the main budget elements and the set of planned expenses, called “separate publication”, was not sent to the parliaments in the middle of July: the document containing this information was sent to the parliament on September 2, after threats from the President. and the rapporteur of the Finance Committee of the National Assembly, Eric Coquerel (La France insoumise) and Charles de Courson (Libertés, independent, overseas and regions), to come and get them themselves from Bercy.
- Switch the test to Assembly
Before the appointment of the new Prime Minister, Michel Barnier, the outgoing government is studying the possibility of postponing the transfer of the PLF to Parliament by a few days, beyond the deadlines of the LOLF law. Based on the constitution, which provides for a review period of seventy days in Parliament plus five days by the Constitutional Council, “we can submit the budget for a week, or even fifteen days after October 1”put forward two concordant sources within the executive.
- Correct the text by editing
Even by giving itself extra time, the future Barnier government does not have much time left to radically restructure the budget compared to the project of the divorce party. On the other hand, he can present the matter as it is, so that it can be taken to the Parliament at the right time, and on the other hand, change the matter through amendments. The government has complete freedom to add spending or budget cuts, tax increases or reductions, etc.
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- Activate section 49.3 at the risk of a motion of censure
In the event that parliamentary debates drag on beyond seventy days without leading to a vote, the government can regain control and use the provisions of the budget of its choice by law. This arrangement has never occurred in the history of the Fifth Republic.
Finally, if the PLF is not received before the end of the year, the government can be asked by a special law to continue collecting taxes and opening credits, until the last voted budget. This provision can be considered in a configuration where the leader will not be able to find the most on the matter and will have a very short time to present a new project and vote for it before the end of the year. This important law must be repeated before the end of the year by the Parliament.
This provision has already worked during the Fifth Republic, especially in 1979 for the 1980 budget, after the constitutional committee had drafted all the financial law at the end of December (for normal reasons): Parliament voted in the last days of the year this importance. a law that authorizes a tax increase.
- Article 16 of the Constitution, as the last resort
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