Global warming will inevitably exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius, according to a new report from the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). In the report titled Limiting the Overshoot, the organization concludes that despite progress in fighting climate change, humanity will fail to keep the global temperature rise within the 1.5°C limit.
Focus on Limiting Overshoot
The report states that limiting the duration and scale of this temperature overshoot is now the best of the remaining options, though it emphasizes that there is nothing positive about warming that exceeds 1.5°C. UNEP Director General Inger Andersen stated that the world must work to return below the 1.5°C threshold by the end of the century while adapting to the consequences of climate change.
Andersen warned that countries must meet and exceed their climate goals rather than postponing or mitigating them, as is currently happening in Canada and Quebec. She added, We need stronger political will.
Environmental and Food Risks
The UNEP outlines several severe risks associated with this warming, including:
- A potential loss of more than a quarter of glacier mass by 2100.
- An increase in wildfires, heatwaves, and droughts.
- Disruptions to food and water supplies, with a projected 14% decline in global food production by 2050.
Mitigation and Equity
While the report notes that removing carbon from the atmosphere will be necessary to limit the overshoot, it insists that carbon capture must supplement sustained greenhouse gas reduction measures rather than replace them. Climatologist Alain Bourque noted that carbon capture may help reduce the planetary temperature by a few tenths of a degree, but it represents only a small fraction of the necessary solution.
The UNEP also advocates for equity and justice in these measures, arguing that countries with greater historical responsibility should take faster and more significant action, and that vulnerable nations with fewer resources must be involved in decision-making.
