Conservatives Retain Boris Johnson’s Seat, Lose Two Others in By-Elections
LONDON, July 21 – In a surprising turn of events, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s governing Conservatives managed to hold on to Boris Johnson’s former constituency, Uxbridge and South Ruislip, but lost two strategically important parliamentary seats in a setback for the opposition Labour Party. These by-elections were viewed as key indicators of public support before the next general election, expected to take place next year.
The Conservatives narrowly avoided a clean sweep in the by-elections, but the loss of the previously safe Conservative seat of Selby and Ainsty was a significant blow. Labour overturned the largest Conservative majority at a by-election since World War Two, showcasing “the demand for change,” according to Labour leader Keir Starmer.
While the retention of Johnson’s former seat offered some relief for Sunak and his party, it was a narrow victory by fewer than 500 votes. Sunak narrowly avoided becoming the first British leader in over half a century to lose three by-elections on a single day.
This outcome further underscores the challenges faced by Sunak as he attempts to restore the Conservatives’ credibility after a series of scandals last year. The party has also been grappling with economic turmoil and rising discontent among voters over high inflation, strikes, and mortgage rates.
Sunak is expected to reshuffle his senior ministers soon as he begins to assemble his team for the next general election. However, with the Conservatives trailing Labour by 20 points in national opinion polls, winning a fifth consecutive general election seems to be a daunting task.
Labour’s loss in Uxbridge raised questions about the party’s lead in the polls and its ability to secure a clear parliamentary majority in the next general election. Renowned pollster John Curtice suggested that a hung parliament is the most likely outcome based on Labour’s performance in Uxbridge.
The by-election in Uxbridge was triggered by Johnson’s decision to resign from parliament following accusations of misleading statements regarding parties held in Downing Street during the pandemic. While Labour’s failure to take the seat came as a surprise, the winning Conservative candidate, Steve Tuckwell, attributed their victory to local factors such as the extension of London’s ultra-low emission zone, which imposed additional costs on some voters.
The Conservatives’ vulnerabilities were exposed in the loss of the rural Selby seat in the north of England and another seat in the southwestern region, a traditional stronghold for the party. Both seats were won with large majorities by the Conservatives in the 2019 general election.
Labour’s victory in Selby and Ainsty, with a margin of 4,000 votes, marked a significant shift in political dynamics, as the Conservatives were unable to defend a majority of 20,137. The seat was vacated after an ally of Johnson resigned in solidarity with the former prime minister.
In Somerton and Frome in southwest England, the centrist Liberal Democrats overturned a Conservative majority of 19,213 after another member of parliament resigned over allegations of sexual harassment and cocaine use.
Curtice pointed out that Labour’s loss in Uxbridge exposes the potential fragility of the party’s lead in the polls, while the Conservatives continue to struggle in southern areas, losing support from voters.
Both party leaders now face the challenge of interpreting these results and strategizing for the upcoming general election.
[Reporting by Andrew MacAskill; Editing by Elizabeth Piper, Tom Hogue, Robert Birsel & Simon Cameron-Moore]