United Kingdom: after the "victory" of Boris Johnson, the war of succession has already begun

The “Party Gate”, in other words the scandal of drunken evenings in Downing Street in full violation of health rules, will finally have succeeded in convincing enough Conservative MPs (54 in number) to impose a vote of no confidence on the whole party. Of 359 Conservative MPs, 180 had to vote no confidence in Boris Johnson for him to be removed from office. The rebels were finally “only” 148. A facade victory for the Prime Minister, and above all a hell of a snub.

Because if Boris Johnson won his party’s vote of confidence, his days are now numbered. Indeed, with 148 votes against him, out of 359 Conservative MPs, 41% of his own MPs turned against him. With a majority of just 63 votes, “Boris Johnson may have kept his job, but he lost power,” commented analyst Beth Rigby.

slow agony

For Rory Stewart, a minister in the governments of David Cameron and Theresa May, there are other ways to measure the anti-Johnson revolt within the party: “If you take the MPs who don’t have government jobs, and whose career does not depend directly on Boris Johnson, they were 75% to vote against their Prime Minister. And to strike: “It’s the end for Boris Johnson. The only question is how long will the agony last.”

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Other Tory prime ministers before him, such as Margaret Thatcher in 1990, John Major in 1995 and Theresa May in 2018, also had votes of no confidence, but none had won that vote by such a narrow majority. And none survived this first onslaught for long. The civil war within the Tory party is therefore now open and the process of finding a successor has unofficially begun. Former British Conservative leader William Hague described the Tory party as an absolute monarchy tempered by regicide. So here we are.

Last faithful

We now know that Boris Johnson was warned of the rebellion a few hours before attending the great popular celebration of the Jubilee of Elizabeth II. We also saw him smiling alongside his wife Carrie, sitting just behind the Duchess of Cambridge. He must have been busy thinking about a possible response which was not long in being repeated in a loop by his last faithful, as soon as the results of the vote were known: “Democracy has spoken. There is no small victory. won. Let’s draw a line. Let’s get back to work.”

Far from these elements of language learned by heart, other conservatives like Roger Gale, MP for North Tanet in Kent for almost 40 years, explains that he had to resolve to vote against Boris Johnson: “It’s a accumulation of things. Johnson can only blame himself. I doubt, however, that he will act as decently as May and Thatcher. He will refuse to resign and thus put us in an even more difficult situation. Our party is deeply divided.” For Tim Montgomerie, former adviser to Boris Johnson, “he has wanted to be ‘King of the World’ since childhood. But if his reputation is irreparable and his decline terminal, he will only leave Downing Street under duress.”

Nail in the coffin

On June 23, there will be by-elections, notably in the Yorkshire region which voted for Johnson in December 2019. If the Conservatives were to lose these constituencies of red wall (formerly Labour), it would be another blow or, as we say in English, “another nail in the coffin.” It remains to be seen which conservative personality could unite this fragmented party. Around Boris Johnson, at least half a dozen of his ministers covet his place, in particular his Minister of Foreign Affairs Liz Truss, his Minister of the Economy Rishi Sunak, his Minister of Justice Dominic Raab or his Minister of Defense Ben Wallace.

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However, their closeness to Johnson disqualifies them in the eyes of many Tory MPs. Opponents of Johnson would no doubt have a better chance of succeeding, such as former health minister Jeremy Hunt or the party’s rising star, centrist and former army officer Tom Tugendhat. The appointment of the latter, whose mother and wife are French, would certainly be likely to warm Franco-British relations. But let’s not get carried away, Boris Johnson is still staying in Downing Street. For now.