The former French president: “The European equilibrium could be at risk if the winning coalition in Rome challenges the EU rules”
FROM OUR CORRESPONDENT
PARIS – «The end of the Draghi government surprised meI did not expect the right-wing formations that sat in Mario Draghi’s government to brutally withdraw once the défaillance of the Five Stars movement. This new crisis also reminded me that Italy has not yet found through its democracy the party forms that would allow it to have stability. Seen from France, our situations are less distant than it appears ». François Hollande, President of the French Republic from 2012 to 2017, looks to the future of Italy and Europe with participation and concern. Even in France, after the last legislative elections, stability seems less solid than it once was.
How is Italy different?
“In France, the large governing parties have weakened considerably, both the classical right of the Républicains and the Socialist Party, which has turned towards the radicalism of Mélenchon. In Italy, if the Democratic Party still holds, and this is an important element for the future of your country, the right, on the other hand, is disintegrated and lacks a clearly established leadership to direct it. Finally, the Five Star Movement has shown the face of division, immaturity and irresponsibility ».
Is the Mélenchon model of union on the left reproducible in Italy? And why are you against Nupes in France?
“I am always in favor of the union of the left, as long as it is led and structured by a governing party, as would be the case in Italy with the Democratic Party, that he can manage to federate all the left because he is the strongest . On the contrary, in France, the Socialist Party has joined the Insoumis of Mélenchon: the result is that the union of the French left fails to come to power, as we saw in the last legislative elections. Center-left voters aspire to progressive reforms, provided they are compatible with our European commitments. They don’t want to add another crisis to the crisis ».
Is the problem the attitude towards Europe?
«This is the real distinction: despite all the defects that we know and which are inherent in the European construction, but also taking into account the protections offered by the EU and in particular by the euro area, do we want to work within the European Union? Or do we allow ourselves to be drawn into a sovereign and populist drift? ».
The elections of 25 September could be a watershed for Italy and for Europe. After getting closer to France with the Quirinal Treaty and joining the Franco-German axis, for example with the Draghi-Macron-Scholz trip to Kiev, she thinks that Italy’s role is at risk, and with it the European equilibrium ?
«Yes, the risk exists. If the right-wing and far-right coalition wins in Italy, it will contest European rules and the euro zone in particular, and will undoubtedly have a more ambiguous attitude towards Putin’s Russia. So I fear that at that point Italy will pronounce itself on the abandonment of the sanctions against Moscow. A position of this type would open a conflict within the European Union and would cause Italy to move away from the Franco-German couple, which nevertheless does not ask for anything other than to associate Italy with itself. I would like to remind you that, when I was president, Angela Merkel, Matteo Renzi and I also worked closely together. And then Mario Draghi, with the support of Enrico Letta, tried to place Italy in this de facto vanguard of the three main EU countries ».
Do you think it possible that Italy will move away from France and Germany and rather approach Orban’s Hungary?
“I don’t want to dramatize. But it is true that in the European Parliament Giorgia Meloni’s party is in the same group as the Polish Law and Justice party, and Salvini’s League is allied with Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement national. Not to mention the positions of Silvio Berlusconi, who has long been close to Putin’s Russia. A coalition of this type would express a very different position from that of the majority of European countries, and in particular France and Germany ”.
Sovereignty and populism, which seemed weakened, remain rooted in Italy and elsewhere. Why, in his opinion?
«The far right feeds on all the difficulties of a country, from the fear of war to the return of inflation. There are companies weakened by sanctions, consumers suffer from the embargo and high energy prices. Sovereignists and populists seek to exploit discontent, and to fuel a return to a nationalism that is not one of conquest but of withdrawal. They ensure that with them in power, immigration and any external threats will disappear, the European Union will no longer intervene in internal affairs and the country will be free again. But the Brexit results should open their eyes. Has the UK progressed? Boris Johnson’s release seems to me the best answer ».
What would you want to say to the Italians before the crucial elections on 25 September?
“It is always dangerous for a French to give advice to Italians, who are so worried about independence, and no Frenchman would accept even a friendly recommendation from a European executive. I would therefore like to be extremely modest and prudent. I would start from the observation that Italy has strong points in this crisis: meanwhile, a large party, the Democratic Party, which has stood the test of time, unfortunately unfortunately the Socialist Party in France; then, Italy’s industrial performances are extremely brilliant and therefore it is a country more capable than others of overcoming difficulties such as inflation and the energy crisis, as shown for example by Draghi’s trip to Algeria; finally, in Italian politics there are quality men and women. That said, the big question to ask the Italians, which also applies to the French, is this: do you want to be a leader in Europe? Or do you prefer your country to be run without protection and without solidarity, running the risk of experiencing high interest rates, a recession and being removed from your European neighbors? ».
Speaking of interest rates and the economy, do you think that in the coming months France and Italy could ask Europe for a second recovery plan together?
“It is indispensable, given the consequences of inflation on households’ purchasing power and the investments necessary for the energy transition. All countries, not just the most indebted ones like France and Italy, need long-term, low-cost support from the European Union. Otherwise we will have a long recession. The new recovery and support plan cannot be accepted by our German friends if Italy, like France, is in phase with this policy and makes the necessary efforts to put its accounts in order and to engage in the fight against climate warming and energy independence ».
Meanwhile, President Putin is witnessing European political and economic difficulties and can also expect US President Biden to weaken in the mid-term elections. You knew Putin well, negotiated the Minsk agreements with him, Angela Merkel and then Ukrainian President Petro Poroschenko. Is the international situation now going to Moscow’s advantage?
«Putin has time on his side. He has no internal pressure and thanks to the agreements with China and other countries he can amortize the shock of the sanctions. His strategy is to occupy as many territories in Ukraine as possible and wait for Europeans and Americans to tire. Supporting Ukraine is getting more and more expensive. Precisely for this reason we must help Ukraine even more and encourage our fellow citizens to show courage and solidarity ”.
Do you think the momentum of emotion and solidarity towards Ukraine has faded? Are public opinion getting tired?
“Public opinion risks becoming impassive in the face of the horrors taking place in Ukraine, indifferent to the risks to their own security, and impatient to put an end to the consequences of the conflict. This is the main danger. In democracies, governments are sensitive to what citizens express, legitimately moreover. So the European leaders must be much more energetic than now in convincing their fellow citizens of the imperative need to support Ukraine, even at the cost of sacrifices. It is an essential question for the balance of the world. We are in a crucial phase in which two great countries, China and Russia, are putting our democracies to the test. It is a conflict between autocracies and regimes of freedom. It is up to us to be aware of what is at stake ».
July 28, 2022 (change July 29, 2022 | 00:07)
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