United States Elections, Benedetta Brevini: «This is why Kamala Harris is unlikely to win. And Trump could win.”

by time news

Benedetta ‌Brevini*, ‌geopolitical expert and professor ⁤at New ⁢York Universityanswers ⁣our questions about the outcome of the American elections that will take place tomorrow, November 5, in the United States.

Simple question: who won between Trump ​and Harris?

«I believe that Trump has a good chance of winning,⁤ certainly not because of himself, but as a reaction to the current‍ American crisis and the ongoing economic and social difficulties that ‍have never‌ been finally resolved by Democratic administrations. I⁣ want to remember that almost 12 percent of Americans (38 million) are in‌ poverty13 ‌percent of Americans (44 million) live‍ in households that struggle to provide food, 8 percent (26 million) have no health insurance. Homelessness is on the rise, with cities such as San Francisco, Los Angeles and New York seeing​ very large spikes. The problem of housing unaffordability is⁢ emerging as one of ‌the main conflicts for social justice. But these questions barely surfaced during the election campaign, even though they will be fundamental in pushing citizens towards a “stopaway”⁢ vote.

Kamala Harris?

“It seems unlikely to me that Harris could win, given the recent polls that put Trump ahead in the famous ⁣”Swing States”, even if the latest NBC poll shows ​a pretty clear ​head-to-head. During the famous debate with Trump, Kamala did not ⁣offer a radical change of direction from Biden. He continued to enjoy the supposed ⁤benefits of the current US economy, such as low unemployment, wage growth and ‌reduced income differences between blacks and whites. But there was a lack of convincing ideas that break with the status quo. Certainly, ⁣many Democrats hoped for a clean break ‍with military campaigns, a clear condemnation of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and a ‌firm commitment to peace and an end to​ the Palestinian genocide.

In which sectors would the victory of one over the other (or one over the other) be most ⁢felt? ⁤Health Care? Foreign policy? Civil rights?

«We start with the economy and duties: Harris is likely to continue Biden’s moderate approach to markets, keeping some tariffs to counter China’s influence and supporting investments in infrastructure and renewable energy in the United⁢ States. On the other hand, Trump takes a⁣ more aggressive approach, proposing tariffs of up to 20% on imports and emphasizing a protectionist policy to reduce dependence on foreign goods. Of course, this approach could have negative ⁤effects on global trade relations.⁤ Speaking instead immigration and border security: The issue of immigration is one of the ​hottest in⁤ the campaign, and⁢ the Republican message tends ⁤to blame “the others”, i.e. immigrants, for all the country’s problems, from rising prices to unemployment to the crisis housing. Both candidates promise to crack down on immigration, but Harris supports ​reform that⁢ provides pathways‍ to citizenship, especially for young ⁢undocumented immigrants. On the ‌contrary, Trump promises mass deportations and the ‍restoration of policies such as “Stay in ⁤Mexico”, programs that completely violate ​human rights.‌ Ar climate and energy rather: Trump’s policies would ⁣represent a leap into the ⁢abyss compared to ​Harris’ line which was already not very courageous, ⁤although he does not guarantee any moratorium on drilling ‌and fossil fuels, he shows more interest in supporting​ renewable energy. On ‍the contrary, Trump is skeptical of the ‌science of climate change and ​would be ready to put further pressure on the expansion of fossil fuels, adopting his slogan “Drill, baby, drill.” He has promised to dismantle⁣ environmental regulations introduced during the Biden era, which he sees ‌as only ballasts for economic growth.
And ‍finally let’s talk about it abortion: There is no doubt that Trump played ​a fundamental role in leading the Supreme Court’s reversal of Roe v. Wade, the 1973 case that legalized⁤ abortion nationwide. Since then, 22 states have introduced restrictive abortion laws, leading to increased maternal and infant mortality. Harris has always been steadfast in her support for abortion and would support a bill in Congress‌ that would protect it, even if the path looks uncertain.

Interview‌ between Time.news Editor and Benedetta Brevini, Geopolitical Expert and Professor at New‍ York ⁣University

Time.news Editor (TNE): Thank you for joining us today, Professor Brevini. Tomorrow marks a crucial day ‌for American politics⁣ with elections on the horizon. To kick things⁣ off, could you‍ provide ​us with your insights on the current landscape? Who do you think will win, Trump​ or Harris?

Benedetta ⁣Brevini ⁤(BB): Thank you for having me. I believe that Trump has a⁤ good chance of ⁣winning, not necessarily because of his own⁣ strengths, but mainly as⁤ a reaction to persistent⁣ economic and social‌ crises under the Democrats. ⁢We are seeing nearly 12 percent of Americans living in poverty, 13 percent in food insecurity, and a significant rise in homelessness across major cities. These issues have yet ⁢to be adequately‌ addressed, and⁢ many voters might respond‌ with a ‘stopaway’⁤ vote against the incumbent party.

TNE: ‌ That’s a sobering ⁤perspective. The economic hardships you’ve mentioned seem to be influencing ⁣voter sentiment. ‌How do‍ you‍ think ‍these conditions⁣ have manifested in voter behavior?

BB: The statistics ‍are⁢ alarming. When you have 38‍ million‍ Americans living in poverty and millions without health insurance, ⁣it creates a backdrop of desperation that can ‍lead voters to seek change—often ‍favoring a‍ more polarizing figure like Trump. The sense of frustration is palpable, and issues like housing affordability will be‍ critical in determining where⁤ voters⁣ cast‌ their ballots.

TNE: Speaking of Kamala‍ Harris, do you think she has a chance to secure a victory? Recent⁣ polls indicate a tight race in ​swing states.

BB: ⁢While⁢ there may be some support ⁤for⁢ Harris,‍ I ‍find it unlikely⁢ she can win, especially with the current polling showing⁢ Trump⁣ slightly ahead⁢ in the crucial swing states. During her debates, she ⁣didn’t present a clear​ break from Biden’s⁢ policies.⁢ Many ‌Democrats had hoped for a radical change, particularly ⁣regarding military involvement and foreign policy, but those sentiments were not ⁤sufficiently⁣ addressed.

TNE: Interesting point. In terms of ⁣policy differences, where would⁢ the impacts of a Trump or⁣ Harris victory be ​most pronounced?

BB: The most significant ‌impacts ‍would likely be seen in ⁤the ⁢economy and trade. Harris would probably continue‌ Biden’s moderate market approach, seeking ⁢to‍ sustain ⁢some tariffs against China while investing in‌ renewable energy—an approach ‌grounded in continuity. In contrast, Trump is advocating for a more aggressive, protectionist stance, suggesting tariffs of up ‌to 20% on imports, which could jeopardize international trade relations.

TNE: ⁣ This all⁤ sounds quite complex. How about immigration and civil rights ‍issues? How might the election results influence ⁣those areas?

BB: Immigration is a contentious topic, especially in this election. Trump’s messaging often frames immigration issues in a negative light, perpetuating a narrative of blame. If elected, ⁣a more hardline approach on immigration ‍can be expected. On the‌ flip side, Harris is‍ likely to maintain‍ a more moderate stance but won’t make significant strides ⁢towards progressive reforms. Civil rights issues, particularly surrounding equity and justice, risk getting overshadowed unless there’s a ‌substantial shift in ​rhetoric ​and policy direction.

TNE: Thank you, Professor Brevini. Your insights ⁤indeed paint a ⁣vivid ‌picture of the⁣ stakes involved in this election. As we await the results, the ⁤implications for both domestic and ‍international policy remain profound.

BB: Thank ‍you for the discussion. It’s an exciting yet tense time in American politics, and​ the outcome will undoubtedly shape many aspects ‍of society in the years to come.

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